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Showing posts with label Services. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Services. Show all posts

Friday, April 2, 2010

Another one bites the dust.

I have not named services for a variety of reasons. One was that if I mentioned a service that appeared to be a good deal and turned out to be not so good...well, if anyone actually signed up based on anything I said in here... I just skipped names.

I made one exception for the Optioneer service as I had faith that their trade selection methodology would be as sound as the theory behind the trade style. Iron Condor option trades can have a sound application if used correctly. It turns out that the Optioneer model is not as sound as it would appear.

Now, I still feel that it could be a good service if traded with a more conservative approach, longer time frames on the trades with the plan to exit the trade earlier, perhaps when the value of the trade exceeds the initial time value. This can increase the overall returns to a degree.

Having said that I have had a number of trades lose money, enough that recovering from the loss would be a longish process. The nature of iron condors is that the amount of cash at risk is much higher than the potential profit. One short falling was I was not aware that certain trades that I made were not going to fall under the terms of the performance agreement which means that the overall agreement timeline was too short to enable me to place all the trades necessary to meet the requirement. If I worked the trades to the minimum times right now I would be short by one trade. Given that having trades filled is less frequent than having them not fill means that it is unlikely that I could pull it off. Besides, even if I did the chances are that I would make the minimum profit requirement and not get to cash in on the refund.

The long story turned short is that I would be wasting my time with daily returns of one tenth of what I am returning right now in my Questrade account. So I will be shutting this service down, taking my lumps of the loss and the up front setup fees and putting my money to better use.

Could I have made it work over the long term? Sure.

Do I want to? No.

Do I regret mentioning the service by name here? Sort of.

If I decide to dabble in spread trades again I will do it either in my Questrade account or with an option specialty broker that does not attempt to make money off of services other than the commissions. I didn't begrudge the "other than commission" fees but perhaps I was too quick to get into this service when I could have setup something similar through someone like OptionXpress for very good commission rates... commissions only.

So, another one bites the dust and I should have done more homework in advance of signing up... or at least before making the main commitment.

Jeff.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Updated Day Trading Stats

I updated my performance stats today. I closed some previous trades and opened a new one today. Nothing fancy, one 13 cent stock trade loss (300 shares) and a 20 cents option gain (9 contracts or the equivalent of 900 shares). Both trades fell short of targets but it resulted in counting the day they were opened as a positive day. My profit per trade went up and my profit per day went down.

I also entered five trades with the new service, all were filled as the prices pulled back in the stocks and I used limit orders based on the option prices at the close yesterday. I ended up with about $1600 invested in this service so I will track it accordingly.

My other stock service still has the majority of the trades open. My account is up in paper profits by about 4% overall right now as most are in the money and a couple are showing small losing positions...but that is normal when entering a new option trade.

Jeff.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Yet another service trial

I am currently using three services that involve data, brokerage or outright trade calling. I have, as I mentioned, given in to the temptation of easier money... or at least money with less overt work to achieve profits.

In review, my initial goal in trading was to do it on the cheap... buy no books, online self directed education, free chart services, DIY trading. I ended up buying a book or two and paying for some inexpensive chart services as I found that better data was in order. I progressed through all sorts of trade styles and execution types including short selling, option buying and selling and have traded a variety of timeframes from minute charts to weekly charts.

Like any long term venture the idea behind the whole process has remained the same, to ultimately become consistently profitable, but the path continues to change along the way as various opportunities present themselves that seem to be consistent with my initial idea.

I begrudgingly signed up for a service last year in order to see if the claims were valid. They were not and I received my money back. Since then I have done the same with trade advisories, stock selection services and educational material. Anything claiming to give trades has not panned out. Anything attempting to provide education has not given anything more than I either already knew or could readily find online.

I found a couple of exceptions. I signed up yesterday for a momentum option trading service. They provide option ideas on stocks with entry targets and followup exit alerts. I actually tried this service once in the fall and ended up cancelling as it did not fit with my mode of trading at the time. Since joining the trading room and listening and reading the comments and whatnot I decided to give it another shot as my trading plan has shifted and the feedback for this service has been very good.

I also know that the moderator in the daytrading room is the source for the momentum trading setups and some of the daytrades have been the same securities in action in the other service.

I am now in one index futures option broker service, one mostly stock swing trading service, one day trading stock/option room and now one options momentum service. As I mentioned in a late blog I also plan on getting back into my very own system(s) as well.

All in all I am finding diversity in the variety of services that I am trying. I think that I will likely keep these four going. At this point two of the four are proving their worth, my timing sucked with the futures option broker but I find their rigid trade entry criteria to be a hobble. This last service looks quite promising given some of the historical trades. The issues I had with it before stemmed from them trading larger priced options than I had capital set aside for and there was a problem with my membership resulting in a week and change gap in the alerts. As a result I missed out on some trades and I also missed some exits... I just cancelled rather than having it cost me due to the cancellation policy.

My idea remains intact of consistent profitability. My path has changed but I still stand behind not having to spend an arm and a leg on education if one is willing to put in some time and keep an open mind about the whole learning curve in trading.

Jeff.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

The last of the services bites the dust.

Well, tonight I decided to cancel the last advisory service that I subscribed to. This was a $2000 per year setup and the refund is pro-rated. I have, over the last couple of months, realized the downfall of the "as advertised" claim. I made decent money initially but the style of trades they provide do not fit my trading style at all now. I only have to decide how to manage the trades that I have left.

If I traded everything exactly as they recommend I could see a decent return with two main exceptions.

1) I cannot sell naked options... and likely have no intention of doing so, this would make the difference in performance as at last every second trade involves selling a naked put in conjunction with a long call. Usually this is for a credit which makes taking the call trade alone questionable. Lately every trade has been a naked put sale... I don't think so.

2) Their recommendations are no better than playing the trend using a relative sector method of trading. They happen to have some insight into things "options related" that I can never hope to in the near future. That does not mean that I cannot make decent profits in options trading.

The long and short of this whole exercise is interesting.

For anyone wanting to trade, be ready to absorb and try as much as possible. Get familiar with the execution, the feel of loss and gains and be prepared to realize that anything that looks good on paper may not work in real life... paper trading is for the birds.

The final word on the various services that I have tested is that, seeing as none worked as advertised, or did but there was far more to the story than meets the eye, I cannot recommend anything that I have looked at or tested... none. That is why I have not bothered to mention any names here as none worked out well enough to get any credit to.

If anyone is still reading and happen to be interested in finding out what I did test and why it didn't work out, drop me an email. I believe that "no publicity is bad publicity" so mentioning them here only attracts attention that I do not intend. Questrade as a broker and Optioneer as a service are exceptions... along with Esignal and Stockcharts.com. There are a few other free services that I am using here and there that I might mention in future.

Jeff.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Closer to expectations

My so far favourite service trial...I'll name all these another time.

Same basic criteria as last time, different service.

Total trades = 83, 46 winning trades, 20 greater than a 100% return, some over 200%

$5000 account MLA = $120 (not including commissions)
Position size = maximum $120 trade value (many 15, 25 cent range, single contract is silly)
today's balance = $5,265
MLA = suggested exits
today's balance = $4,343

Tinkering with MLA and reducing it to $120 commission included yields $5,669

$10,000 account MLA = $120 (not including commissions)
Position size = maximum $120 trade value (many 15, 25 cent range, single contract is silly)
today's balance = $5,265 (no position size change so no real change expected here)
MLA = suggested exits
today's balance = $9,343 (no position size change so no real change expected here)

$10,000 account
MLA = $120 (not including commissions)
Position size = double position size (the win rate goes up to 47)
today's balance = $12,092
MLA = suggested exits
today's balance = $10,248

Tinkering with MLA and reducing it to $120 commission included yields $12,900

$20,000 account MLA = $120 (not including commissions)
Position size = quadruple sizing
today's balance = $25,746
MLA = suggested exits
today's balance = $22,058

Tinkering with MLA and reducing it to $120 commission included yields $27,362

The claim to fame is a little over what I see produced but this is only part of the service as I was unable to use any of the selling features (naked puts and spreads) which netted more gains yet, it also is only the basic service that they provide, I signed up for the pro service as well and they are operated independently, for the most part. In my actual trading so far each portion has returned the same actual cash amount and, seeing as cashflow is my target, they both serve the purpose.

I could reduce commission costs by only trading one side and just doubling my sizing but I like really active accounts, so for now I will stick with both services through the trial.

When I tinkered with the MLA and reduced it by $30 per trade the profit margin went up, substantially. I may have been knocked out of a trade or two due to whipsaws and this may reduce the effectiveness somewhat but it give s a good indication of what could be achieved with a little trade management. As it is I have bought lower and sold higher than the recommendations frequently enough to be worth the effort. Today I closed a trade for $30 more on a single contract than the recommendation suggested...I placed a limit then changed it to a market when the limit was not reached but while the price was at it's apparent peak for the morning.

Jeff.

Overblown claims or what

I finally got around to running one of the trial services through it's paces with regard to their historical trades...these are not backtesting trades but the actual trade numbers from the website

I was amazed and astounded!

I did not go back to the beginning of the service but I used 2009 data to date. I ran the opening price and the closing price then created a column to be able to adjust the position sizing had a winning trade count column as well as one column for the account balance based on my loss allowance and another based on the service advisory to sell.

For the purposes of the test I made a few assumptions, which are not valid in real life but serve the purpose for the spreadsheet and save me a lot of data entry time. Chances are these fudge in favour of the service trades except #4.... actually, if I did not adjust for commissions then this would have given more winners but would not change the bottom line net profits...or losses as the case is likely to be.

1) The trades may not have occurred concurrently...my smaller account may not have been able to carry all of the trades that may have been running at the same time...then again it may have been able to. I just didn't check.

2) I did not stop the sheet when my account hit zero, I traded into the negative numbers.

3) All the trades were executed at the prices given.

4) I only counted a trade as a winner if the after commission profit was greater than zero.

Putting this altogether leaves me with a not so warm fuzzy feeling.

Total trades = 111, 56 winning trades, 12 greater than a 100% return.

$5000 account
MLA = $120 (not including commissions)
Position size = 1 contract
today's balance = $4,009
MLA = suggested exits
today's balance = account closed after 62 trades

$10,000 account
MLA = $120 (not including commissions)
Position size = 1 contract
today's balance = $9,009
MLA = suggested exits
today's balance = $3,521

$10,000 account
MLA = $120 (not including commissions)
Position size = 2 contract (the win rate goes up to 62 once two or more contracts are traded)
today's balance = $10,196
MLA = suggested exits
today's balance = account hits zero at trade 110

$20,000 account
MLA = $120 (not including commissions)
Position size = 4 contract
today's balance = $22,570
MLA = suggested exits
today's balance = $618

The claim to fame was, on average, 1 money doubling trade every 9 days. We should have seen 20 doubles not 12. That gets better. The number was changed recently to every 6 days which should produce 30 doublers.

????

If the win rate for 2009 was worse than 2008 then how could this average go up?

Sometimes I just have to shake my head.

The worst of it was there are two guarantees, one is for 90 days for a full refund if I paid the annual membership fee. The other was a pro-rated credit based on a quarterly subscription. I thought it was full money back or I would have anted up for the one year to secure a money back guarantee... at least they goofed and had to extend my membership so that now when I cancel I am dealing with 4 months, not three.

As far as the service is concerned, all of what is proposed is not much different than I was doing myself as it involves mostly technical analysis based on a certain group of pre-selected stocks. I was not paying attention to news but this one tends to do a bit of speculative guess work and news front running.

Jeff.

Friday, September 25, 2009

AAARRRGGGHHH! One last trial.

I had decided that signing up with the Optioneer program was to be my last service to put to the test (although there is more commitment there than others from my side AND their side to make it work).

Today I received a notice about another program that I had considered before and looked into. It is new but I have tried other products from the same group. While I did not keep them active and exercised my risk free guarantee I was impressed with their dealings and straight up business attitude.

I put the cost onto my card, as all online services do, and immediately went crazy reading and going through the material.

This one is a "course" in options that includes a DVD set of lessons and some online assistance and webtools for working with options.

I must admit that they did a bangup job of it and it comes across as professional and is informative. I blew through all the quizzes after reading through the slide presentations so I have a handle on the entire content of the course now. The last part I skipped had to do with some of the more complicated strategies, condors, butterflies, strangles... all of which I am already looking at implementing anyway but will approach on an individual basis as I have done with every other aspect of trading.

In order to receive the credit upon cancellation within the 30 days I have to return the material...I think that I may cancel before then as all of the option course so far, 70% of it, has not had anything new. A few twists on theories that I passed over before and a slightly different takes on a few ideas but certainly nothing earthshattering...and certainly not worth $2500, the "introductory" price let alone the suggest retail price of $5,000.

While I should have known, I was curious enough to try it. The thing about these is there is no real material to get to understand ahead of ordering these so I have to bite the bullet to satisfy my curiosity. I am glad that the guarantees so far have lived up to their word.

I suppose, in defense of the program, anyone brand new to options would have a time with this course as it does cover a lot of material, just not much new for someone who, like myself, loves to learn voraciously and seeks out every scrap of material available while leaving my BS filter on high gain.

One last comment, and this has to do with the reason that I left options as long as I have. No matter how much one knows about options, one still has to be able to gauge a stock and price expectations in order to trade options. There are a few ways to trade them that can turn losers into winners and some that can turn a profit without knowing anything more than the volatility and average true range but that does not preclude getting to know the stocks first anyway.

Another service bites the dust.

Jeff.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Service ahead of the news

It is worth noting that one service has performed better than my trading, but that may be partially due to lack of trades on my part and missing some of my own key triggers...but I digress.

They posted an advisory on Wednesday last week about unusual call buying activity and recommended to follow the institutional buyers in that move. I placed the order but the price had already moved ahead enough for the option to be up by 5 cents... I decided not to chase it at all. Instead I made the order GTC so it would stand and fill on the next pullback.

The news had noted the activity on Thursday. Now, if I read every single news report to try to figure out which ones were good leads I would spend all day reading and likely end up trading my accounts away quickly...I have never believed that trading on news is a good plan. Having said that, trading activity that becomes news is not the same as trying to trade just news and talking head's speculation.

Today, the market pulled back and the order was filled, along with another GTC order from last week from the same service. This particular stock took off today and gained over 7% in the AM, so we'll hang on for bit and see where it goes. The option could easily double and I may set my stop at that point (keeping in mind the stop order executions on the ask, not the bid) but it is expected to quadruple.

It is worth noting that the stock price at the order fill time was around $7.00. The option is the January 7.50 call and today it reached $7.50... the option was bought for 60 cents and now is at the point of gaining intrinsic value as well as extrinsic due to volatility I expect. As the price is sitting at the strike the option is bid at 90 cents, already a 50% gain without any added intrinsic value.

I bought 4 contracts. It certainly is nice to see a quick gain but it may just as easily drop back as quick. Had I been daytrading the stock I would have traded 400 shares (same as the option contracts 4x100 shares represented) and jumped out after the 50 cent mark for a clean $200.

Jeff.

All in and all out, committed to trade services testing

I closed the last of my own trades today for a profit, that was CAH that I referred to in the Stop Order post this morning. Now my account has exclusively trade advisory positions, ten of them.

So I am all in with service trades and all out with my trades.

I have one account that is all green , one that is neutral and one that is mostly red, but not by much. Overall they are down a bit but after last week's profits I am hardly concerned about a couple hundred in paper losses at this point.

My accounts are a margin account, an RRSP account and a TFSA. The TFSA is the account that I really want to concentrate on as it can produce tax free profits that are available to transfer to other trading accounts, let grow through compounding or just use. In that light I am migrating all of my trades over to it now. AS it is I have six trades in there and still have $2500 in buying power (cash, no margin). Seeing as my largest position was $4.00 for one contract and the rest are all under $300 even with 4 contracts I can easily squeeze 10 - 15 trades in here.

My next consideration is what to do with the RRSP account. I may cash it out, or most of it, and transfer to the trade service that I spoke about before with the dedicated brokerage. I have authority now (Kate trusts that I will not squander the money) to liquidate some other investments to fund the venture if I still feel it of value after the webinar on Wednesday. At least, unlike many of the services, this is not a "limited time", " must act now", " save 1/2 off" sort of deal. This is a regular business operation and, as such, I do expect a level of service above anything I have experienced so far in my trading.

Some of today's activity included entering two more trades and getting filled as the market has a smallish pullback. I need to reduce my time spent in front of the computer with trading now. using services MAY provide that once I get to a point of trusting them. The last service will provide this as they look after the filling of orders to open and to close based on my criteria. Even though there is an expense involved I think that I will find it worthwhile.

Jeff.