I placed the put spread in XLE as I mentioned earlier. Seeing as the S&P 500 opened higher and XLE also opened higher (pre-market trading made this easy to notice) I went with the lower credit spread of 25 cents or better.
Sell to open 4 Jan 52 strike puts, XLE MZ
Buy to open 4 Jan 49 strike puts, XBT MW
They opened today giving me about 26 cents...but I haven't seen any trades executed so I am not sure what is up. I think that my order didn't get placed immediately so may be stuck in line somewhere. 26 cents seems to be holding so I should see a fill.
There we go, 0943h sold for 50 cents and bought for 22 cents for a 28 cent credit. The worst is it looks like I could have held out for 30 cents and got that also...not to get greedy though.
Aim for the targets.
Daily return is $2.85 for an total 8.5% ROR.
So far my average daily return is $3.27, higher than my $2.40 target but that first tight trade is at $4.06 which skews the result due to the small sample so far.
3 active trades, two expiring Dec 30 and one Jan 15. I'll be watching for a fourth and lining up two replacements in the new year to keep things rolling along.
Jeff.
Questrade, My direct access discount broker.
Showing posts with label daily update. Show all posts
Showing posts with label daily update. Show all posts
Monday, December 14, 2009
Monday, November 9, 2009
Short on time
I don't have time to update the performance page but I closed a small gainer today and see that most of my positions moved up on the stock price side of things...that does not always equate to gains in the paper profits of the options though...due to some of the very small delta values. All in all I see the portfolio bounced back another $155 though. Every little bit helps, but paper numbers can change quickly.
That puts me at 17 winners in 23 trades so far and my paper loss is eroding as I take these small gains.
Oh, I checked a currency exchange service today and I am now kicking myself for not using them the first time around. I get a whole 4% reduction in conversion when compared to the bank rate.
Today, late this afternoon I got a quote of 1.063 compared to the bank at 1.104. That is $410 difference on a $10,000 purchase. Definitely worth the 45 minute drive to me. Right, transactions need to be in person, considering that I usually have to schedule this drive once a month anyway I can work it into my cash conversion schedule.
Downside, they hold quotes for 30 minutes only so I need to buy USD with whatever my CDN balance is rather than choosing how many USD I want and just writing a cheque for the necessary amount as I need to bring a bank draft in. I get a better rate for transactions larger than $10,000... so I need to save my pennies to save more pennies.
Jeff.
That puts me at 17 winners in 23 trades so far and my paper loss is eroding as I take these small gains.
Oh, I checked a currency exchange service today and I am now kicking myself for not using them the first time around. I get a whole 4% reduction in conversion when compared to the bank rate.
Today, late this afternoon I got a quote of 1.063 compared to the bank at 1.104. That is $410 difference on a $10,000 purchase. Definitely worth the 45 minute drive to me. Right, transactions need to be in person, considering that I usually have to schedule this drive once a month anyway I can work it into my cash conversion schedule.
Downside, they hold quotes for 30 minutes only so I need to buy USD with whatever my CDN balance is rather than choosing how many USD I want and just writing a cheque for the necessary amount as I need to bring a bank draft in. I get a better rate for transactions larger than $10,000... so I need to save my pennies to save more pennies.
Jeff.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Cleaning house
Today I did a little house cleaning in the option position department. I had a few oversized positions that I wanted to pare but they were languishing in the "Gee, look how much I will lose" zone. One $4 option was down near $1 for a while, today it made it just over $3. Seeing as I take a wait and see approach to judging where the market may head next I decided to drop a few while the dropping was not so painful. Some of the expirations were nearing as well, December and January...one November but it has zeroed and I MAY actually see a jump, although I really doubt it. It was a leftover from a previous service trial but I will count it in with my general trading numbers.
I did close another for a small profit as well.
Now, I cannot take full credit for these as the service I am using also pegged them for house cleaning but they were ripe regardless. I have been watching them closely and aiming for a small bounce. The winners I took out yesterday I did before the advisory and for more than they suggested I could get. That just reminds me that nothing is completely brainless...or cannot be improved upon by thinking things through and monitoring the situation.
My spreadsheet certainly helps in this department as I have the expiry count down colour coded by number of days left so the near term options get flagged as they hit 90, then again at 60 and once more at 30 days out. Under 30 days they are in serious need of some hands on monitoring and should already have been exited if they were in a profit position. The only reason to hold a position in the last thirty days is if I sold the option, not if I bought it.
I still have a few that have zeroed out but they are not the largish ones, thankfully.
My realized loss today was $175 including commission costs. The main point of getting rid of these, other than to cut some losers loose is to free up some capital as I was all in up to yesterday and had to use some of my margin account to add a couple of positions lately...that is not a problem but does mean possible taxation, something I am trying to not have to deal with in this trade setup. That loss was for four losers and one small winner.
Meanwhile, over at Optioneer, no trade set for today, the target was under my minimum but I learned a few things while emailing back and forth with my broker...something that is hard to accomplish with a discount online broker.
Plan M is still in the back of my mind...my Stockcharts.com subscription had expired so I need to sign back up for that before I can do any substantial work on that plan. I might look at switching my charting back over to Esignal for delayed information as they have some better tools to work with that might be advantageous for me...even if the charts are not wuite as nice looking. Scaling the chart to allow head room is a bonus as that has always been a bit of an issue for me.
Jeff.
I did close another for a small profit as well.
Now, I cannot take full credit for these as the service I am using also pegged them for house cleaning but they were ripe regardless. I have been watching them closely and aiming for a small bounce. The winners I took out yesterday I did before the advisory and for more than they suggested I could get. That just reminds me that nothing is completely brainless...or cannot be improved upon by thinking things through and monitoring the situation.
My spreadsheet certainly helps in this department as I have the expiry count down colour coded by number of days left so the near term options get flagged as they hit 90, then again at 60 and once more at 30 days out. Under 30 days they are in serious need of some hands on monitoring and should already have been exited if they were in a profit position. The only reason to hold a position in the last thirty days is if I sold the option, not if I bought it.
I still have a few that have zeroed out but they are not the largish ones, thankfully.
My realized loss today was $175 including commission costs. The main point of getting rid of these, other than to cut some losers loose is to free up some capital as I was all in up to yesterday and had to use some of my margin account to add a couple of positions lately...that is not a problem but does mean possible taxation, something I am trying to not have to deal with in this trade setup. That loss was for four losers and one small winner.
Meanwhile, over at Optioneer, no trade set for today, the target was under my minimum but I learned a few things while emailing back and forth with my broker...something that is hard to accomplish with a discount online broker.
Plan M is still in the back of my mind...my Stockcharts.com subscription had expired so I need to sign back up for that before I can do any substantial work on that plan. I might look at switching my charting back over to Esignal for delayed information as they have some better tools to work with that might be advantageous for me...even if the charts are not wuite as nice looking. Scaling the chart to allow head room is a bonus as that has always been a bit of an issue for me.
Jeff.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
EOD numbers
Well I closed two trades for some nice gains today ahead of the service recommendation. In both cases I already had my stop orders in place before getting the email to close the positions for profits.
One was closed for a 126% profit and the other was 89%, net. Even in the downturn there is profit to be had...although the day was pretty good as the S&P took a nice jump.
My other positions regained another $227... although that is after removing the winners from the calculations so the number would be over $300 if the gains in the closed trades were considered.
Oh, the service recommends limit orders at particular prices but I like to use stops once I reach a certain point then move them up tight to the bid if the price moves up any more. In one case I gained and additional 5 cents and the other 15 cents. Considering that I may have missed out if the limit did not fill and the price dropped I preferred the stop method. Had I just placed market to get out at the time I decided to consider closing I would have still received good returns as well.
I will update my stat page today I expect now that I have some closed positions to note.
Jeff.
One was closed for a 126% profit and the other was 89%, net. Even in the downturn there is profit to be had...although the day was pretty good as the S&P took a nice jump.
My other positions regained another $227... although that is after removing the winners from the calculations so the number would be over $300 if the gains in the closed trades were considered.
Oh, the service recommends limit orders at particular prices but I like to use stops once I reach a certain point then move them up tight to the bid if the price moves up any more. In one case I gained and additional 5 cents and the other 15 cents. Considering that I may have missed out if the limit did not fill and the price dropped I preferred the stop method. Had I just placed market to get out at the time I decided to consider closing I would have still received good returns as well.
I will update my stat page today I expect now that I have some closed positions to note.
Jeff.
Funny day today.
I started the day with a mixed open followed by most of my positions heading up...the stock prices anyway as the option prices don't move that fast when they are way out of the money.
As of this moment every single stock, with one exception, that represents the options I have positions for has started moving up, from yesterday's close anyway. DPS was the worst as it had dropped $2 off the start and is now back in the 50 cent under area...not a bad recovery. The worst about that is it is a new trade...BAH!
The S&P is up overall and has surpassed yesterday's high...so we have a higher high and a higher low... perhaps this is the re-assertion of the uptrend for this year as the S&P comes off of the low trading range and crosses above the 50sma...yesterday's resistance and today's support.
Whatever.
I now have 7 option positions that are either at breakeven or positive which is better than them all being in the red. I'll run the numbers after the market closes today and see how I am making out.
I placed an Optioneer trade last night for today's trading, I doubt the order will get filled.
When placing a trade I choose the market, the style of trade and the size of the order. Then I decide how much I am willing to bend in order to have the trade filled. I am aiming for 1.9 points as a minimum and, as a full point is worth $250, that makes a trade target of $397 after commissions. If I allow 0.1 points I may give up $25 in profits to give the broker more room to move, basically it is a limit order and I allow more limit room, or a lower profit target.
At 1.9 points I will allow no room, or leniency as they call it, but as the point target goes up I will allow more room according to the difference in my target.
1.9 = none
2.0 = 0.1 or none depending on the market and my desire to make the trade
2.1 = 0.1
2.2 = 0.2
2.3 = 0.3
2.4 = 0.4
The largest I have seen is 2.4, which is $522 target. Sometimes the orders are filled at the target or higher, sometimes lower and sometimes not at all due to being too far out from the allowed leniency.
In my testing I saw the average target was $414 so the tendency is toward the smaller side. Depending on how often I get filled with this method I may have to lower my minimum target. The interesting thing about that is that I can also lower the timeframe that I am willing to be in a trade.
For example, today's target puts me at $397 over the next 45 days....$8.82 per day. I could choose to take the same target but not until the time to expiry is down to 35 days or $11.34 per day. That increases the time return on my money and keeps me in a shorter trade, which is actually safer as the market would have to move faster and harder in order to cause me to lose any of the target profit.
The other difference in the time trades is the annualized return. the 45 day trade vs the 35 day trade would be 70% vs 90%. So if I always traded in the 35 day range I could force my cash to work harder for me as I could turn it around quicker. I suspect that I will have to allow a greater leniency as the time to expiry shortens in order to accommodate the greater volatility as the expiry approaches. This may offset the advantage. Having said that, I will always take the largest return and the shortest timeframe.
All this is nothing proprietary, this is just the nature of options and strangle strategies, time is very important.
Jeff.
As of this moment every single stock, with one exception, that represents the options I have positions for has started moving up, from yesterday's close anyway. DPS was the worst as it had dropped $2 off the start and is now back in the 50 cent under area...not a bad recovery. The worst about that is it is a new trade...BAH!
The S&P is up overall and has surpassed yesterday's high...so we have a higher high and a higher low... perhaps this is the re-assertion of the uptrend for this year as the S&P comes off of the low trading range and crosses above the 50sma...yesterday's resistance and today's support.
Whatever.
I now have 7 option positions that are either at breakeven or positive which is better than them all being in the red. I'll run the numbers after the market closes today and see how I am making out.
I placed an Optioneer trade last night for today's trading, I doubt the order will get filled.
When placing a trade I choose the market, the style of trade and the size of the order. Then I decide how much I am willing to bend in order to have the trade filled. I am aiming for 1.9 points as a minimum and, as a full point is worth $250, that makes a trade target of $397 after commissions. If I allow 0.1 points I may give up $25 in profits to give the broker more room to move, basically it is a limit order and I allow more limit room, or a lower profit target.
At 1.9 points I will allow no room, or leniency as they call it, but as the point target goes up I will allow more room according to the difference in my target.
1.9 = none
2.0 = 0.1 or none depending on the market and my desire to make the trade
2.1 = 0.1
2.2 = 0.2
2.3 = 0.3
2.4 = 0.4
The largest I have seen is 2.4, which is $522 target. Sometimes the orders are filled at the target or higher, sometimes lower and sometimes not at all due to being too far out from the allowed leniency.
In my testing I saw the average target was $414 so the tendency is toward the smaller side. Depending on how often I get filled with this method I may have to lower my minimum target. The interesting thing about that is that I can also lower the timeframe that I am willing to be in a trade.
For example, today's target puts me at $397 over the next 45 days....$8.82 per day. I could choose to take the same target but not until the time to expiry is down to 35 days or $11.34 per day. That increases the time return on my money and keeps me in a shorter trade, which is actually safer as the market would have to move faster and harder in order to cause me to lose any of the target profit.
The other difference in the time trades is the annualized return. the 45 day trade vs the 35 day trade would be 70% vs 90%. So if I always traded in the 35 day range I could force my cash to work harder for me as I could turn it around quicker. I suspect that I will have to allow a greater leniency as the time to expiry shortens in order to accommodate the greater volatility as the expiry approaches. This may offset the advantage. Having said that, I will always take the largest return and the shortest timeframe.
All this is nothing proprietary, this is just the nature of options and strangle strategies, time is very important.
Jeff.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Consolidation
As of today I have 14 active open positions and all are option trades. The highest priced option is $4 and the lowest is 36 cents. The best thing about these is that ten of them are in my TFSA and I still have room for about 6 more should they materialize...I do have one order pending still.
The cheapest option that I ordered, but did not get filled, was 15 cents.
Current profit is running at $840 which is about 24% in the last week and change. Sadly those were not all in my TFSA so it is sprinkled about my three accounts.
Current positions are worth, not stopped but if I had closed them all at the end of the day, -$338 and the open capital used is $3434. In theory, if all my positions were wrong and I let them expire worthless I would lose the whole $3434. I doubt that is likely as I would stop some of them before then. That and I am diversified enough that all should not tank at once anyway.
Should even a few of these do what it looks like they may then the return is greater than 100%. Seeing as my theoretical risk is 100%, actually about 50%, then having a number over that mark should boost gains over losses.
I feel like I am consolidating. Similar to a market that trades horizontally for a bit to gain strength in the current range and accumulate strategic positions. I bought two more positions and sold none, no more realized profits. All of my trades are based from the advisory and data services but I am considering dropping one of the three as it has only yielded two trades this month. I like a lot of activity but only for it's own sake.
Of the total trades taken, 14 have been from one service, two of which have been profitable (71% and 100%) two did not fill and the rest are still open. I have not taken about 1/3 of the trades recommended as they are using strategies that I cannot execute in my accounts right now, everything from naked option writing to spreads and three legged trades as well. No covered calls as they are not into trading stocks.
My trades count 4 with 3 at 44%, 72% and 38% with one loss at -7%. There were other earlier ones that won and lost but those were the recent option trades based on my P&F charting
The other two services have yielded 5 trades total. Only one closed for a 44% gain so far. They do not look terribly promising at this point.
Jeff.
The cheapest option that I ordered, but did not get filled, was 15 cents.
Current profit is running at $840 which is about 24% in the last week and change. Sadly those were not all in my TFSA so it is sprinkled about my three accounts.
Current positions are worth, not stopped but if I had closed them all at the end of the day, -$338 and the open capital used is $3434. In theory, if all my positions were wrong and I let them expire worthless I would lose the whole $3434. I doubt that is likely as I would stop some of them before then. That and I am diversified enough that all should not tank at once anyway.
Should even a few of these do what it looks like they may then the return is greater than 100%. Seeing as my theoretical risk is 100%, actually about 50%, then having a number over that mark should boost gains over losses.
I feel like I am consolidating. Similar to a market that trades horizontally for a bit to gain strength in the current range and accumulate strategic positions. I bought two more positions and sold none, no more realized profits. All of my trades are based from the advisory and data services but I am considering dropping one of the three as it has only yielded two trades this month. I like a lot of activity but only for it's own sake.
Of the total trades taken, 14 have been from one service, two of which have been profitable (71% and 100%) two did not fill and the rest are still open. I have not taken about 1/3 of the trades recommended as they are using strategies that I cannot execute in my accounts right now, everything from naked option writing to spreads and three legged trades as well. No covered calls as they are not into trading stocks.
My trades count 4 with 3 at 44%, 72% and 38% with one loss at -7%. There were other earlier ones that won and lost but those were the recent option trades based on my P&F charting
The other two services have yielded 5 trades total. Only one closed for a 44% gain so far. They do not look terribly promising at this point.
Jeff.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Service ahead of the news
It is worth noting that one service has performed better than my trading, but that may be partially due to lack of trades on my part and missing some of my own key triggers...but I digress.
They posted an advisory on Wednesday last week about unusual call buying activity and recommended to follow the institutional buyers in that move. I placed the order but the price had already moved ahead enough for the option to be up by 5 cents... I decided not to chase it at all. Instead I made the order GTC so it would stand and fill on the next pullback.
The news had noted the activity on Thursday. Now, if I read every single news report to try to figure out which ones were good leads I would spend all day reading and likely end up trading my accounts away quickly...I have never believed that trading on news is a good plan. Having said that, trading activity that becomes news is not the same as trying to trade just news and talking head's speculation.
Today, the market pulled back and the order was filled, along with another GTC order from last week from the same service. This particular stock took off today and gained over 7% in the AM, so we'll hang on for bit and see where it goes. The option could easily double and I may set my stop at that point (keeping in mind the stop order executions on the ask, not the bid) but it is expected to quadruple.
It is worth noting that the stock price at the order fill time was around $7.00. The option is the January 7.50 call and today it reached $7.50... the option was bought for 60 cents and now is at the point of gaining intrinsic value as well as extrinsic due to volatility I expect. As the price is sitting at the strike the option is bid at 90 cents, already a 50% gain without any added intrinsic value.
I bought 4 contracts. It certainly is nice to see a quick gain but it may just as easily drop back as quick. Had I been daytrading the stock I would have traded 400 shares (same as the option contracts 4x100 shares represented) and jumped out after the 50 cent mark for a clean $200.
Jeff.
They posted an advisory on Wednesday last week about unusual call buying activity and recommended to follow the institutional buyers in that move. I placed the order but the price had already moved ahead enough for the option to be up by 5 cents... I decided not to chase it at all. Instead I made the order GTC so it would stand and fill on the next pullback.
The news had noted the activity on Thursday. Now, if I read every single news report to try to figure out which ones were good leads I would spend all day reading and likely end up trading my accounts away quickly...I have never believed that trading on news is a good plan. Having said that, trading activity that becomes news is not the same as trying to trade just news and talking head's speculation.
Today, the market pulled back and the order was filled, along with another GTC order from last week from the same service. This particular stock took off today and gained over 7% in the AM, so we'll hang on for bit and see where it goes. The option could easily double and I may set my stop at that point (keeping in mind the stop order executions on the ask, not the bid) but it is expected to quadruple.
It is worth noting that the stock price at the order fill time was around $7.00. The option is the January 7.50 call and today it reached $7.50... the option was bought for 60 cents and now is at the point of gaining intrinsic value as well as extrinsic due to volatility I expect. As the price is sitting at the strike the option is bid at 90 cents, already a 50% gain without any added intrinsic value.
I bought 4 contracts. It certainly is nice to see a quick gain but it may just as easily drop back as quick. Had I been daytrading the stock I would have traded 400 shares (same as the option contracts 4x100 shares represented) and jumped out after the 50 cent mark for a clean $200.
Jeff.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
CVA and CMC revisited with options
I keep looking at the options that I am trading now and consider that what I am doing is the best method for the style of trading that I am pursuing... but those cheap ATM or OTM options look awfully tempting.
I bought two new option contracts this morning, CVA and CMC...both of which I have trade stocks in my new plan recently and both are using the Point and Figure entry method.
In CVA my entry trigger for the stock was between $17.25 and $17.50, and I even entered a stock order at that limit initially as I wanted into the market at that price. This gave me time to investigate the options. The price hovered around $17.30 for a while, I entered the option data into my spreadsheet, decided upon the option, cancelled the stock order and placed an option order. Strike was $15, expiry Jan '10. In at $2.90 after playing with $2.80 and $2.85 for a while.
Option cost $2.90, $2.25 ITM so 65 cents Extrinsic Value, 22.4% of the price was EV.
CMC was, more or less the same deal. $16.75 to $17. Option was the $12.50 strike, Jan '10 expiry.
Option cost $5.10, $4.25 ITM so 85 cents Extrinsic Value, 16.7% of the price was EV.
Looking at my sheet comparing the various strike prices with their EV based on paying the asking price (which I didn't) makes these look like the best deal as the Deltas are high and the EV was relatively low.
Then I consider the element of risk. Options reduce risk in the sense that they are somewhat unaffected by some attributes of the stock activity...CAH example as I would have lost over 50% of the value of my stock only position where I did better holding my own in the options.
Let's just see where these trades take me going forward.
Jeff.
I bought two new option contracts this morning, CVA and CMC...both of which I have trade stocks in my new plan recently and both are using the Point and Figure entry method.
In CVA my entry trigger for the stock was between $17.25 and $17.50, and I even entered a stock order at that limit initially as I wanted into the market at that price. This gave me time to investigate the options. The price hovered around $17.30 for a while, I entered the option data into my spreadsheet, decided upon the option, cancelled the stock order and placed an option order. Strike was $15, expiry Jan '10. In at $2.90 after playing with $2.80 and $2.85 for a while.
Option cost $2.90, $2.25 ITM so 65 cents Extrinsic Value, 22.4% of the price was EV.
CMC was, more or less the same deal. $16.75 to $17. Option was the $12.50 strike, Jan '10 expiry.
Option cost $5.10, $4.25 ITM so 85 cents Extrinsic Value, 16.7% of the price was EV.
Looking at my sheet comparing the various strike prices with their EV based on paying the asking price (which I didn't) makes these look like the best deal as the Deltas are high and the EV was relatively low.
Then I consider the element of risk. Options reduce risk in the sense that they are somewhat unaffected by some attributes of the stock activity...CAH example as I would have lost over 50% of the value of my stock only position where I did better holding my own in the options.
Let's just see where these trades take me going forward.
Jeff.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Patience and the Nitty Gritty.
I have two trades that I still have open one from last week and one from last month.
My other trades ended up in the red overall so I am not overly impressed with the method that I was using...that was the test of the service. Even had I exited the few that did turn green at the peak I suspect that I would have ended negative for the test anyway. That is not anywhere near enough of an edge to sway me into using this particular service. Of course, I shouldn't have been surprised.
So on to the next more serious trade plan with a healthy sprinkling of patience. Now that I am using all of my own picks and entries I don't mind getting into the nitty gritty of what I am really doing...so here it goes...
I went through some back testing of the two trades that I am in right now and found how the particular stocks seem to work with respect to my indicators...more on those another time.
Badger Meter Inc. (BMI)
This stock moves well and has a nice pattern of observing various support and resistance levels far more often than breaking them. Volume levels are clean and well delineated and the price ranges often enough to produce a good number of trading opportunities. It's a keeper in my arsenal of stocks to trade.
There have been 26 trade setups in the last 12 months. 8 did not meet the entry target, 2 were losers (less than $2 ps) and the rest were up $55.50 ps.
I bought it on Friday at $38.50 based on a signal, but not mine. It was a buy under $40 but I had it down as a buy under $38. $38.50 is not too far off and the price entry has some reasonable trend support so I will play it out. The up target is $44.00.
Lincare Holdings (LNCR)
LNCR is the other longer term trade, it is a short placed on June 30th at $23.30. This one is a slow mover and I would not have traded it had I realized that it would tie up capital for so long to make it's moves. I did not do all of the back testing that I would normally plan as I doubt that I will continue tracking it. It does trade decent volume and I wouldn't mind so much holding it as a long position but it is in a serious long term downtrend right now....has been for almost three years and it has only moved $15 overall with a large drop of $12 in 2007 that took 6 months to finish.
Wider stops, more patience...I should check to see if I am going to get hit with a dividend payout soon.
The down target is somewhere just south of $20 and I will cover this trade rather than letting it go much farther.
That's it for active trades and I have nothing else tested yet. This is where the patience comes in. I will not just enter a trade until I have done the one year back test and determined that the stock is a good candidate. I plan on having a number of stocks, perhaps forty, to choose from at any given time. They will all have pre-set entry targets and use rule based following stops.
I estimate that I can choose a stock in a few minutes after doing a scan for my criteria. It should take about an hour to do a back test so I may only end up with a few per week to add to my list.
At some point in the future I will set these up with a semi automatic trigger program but I need to see some returns to justify the necessary time investment involved in writing that kind of software.
Jeff.
My other trades ended up in the red overall so I am not overly impressed with the method that I was using...that was the test of the service. Even had I exited the few that did turn green at the peak I suspect that I would have ended negative for the test anyway. That is not anywhere near enough of an edge to sway me into using this particular service. Of course, I shouldn't have been surprised.
So on to the next more serious trade plan with a healthy sprinkling of patience. Now that I am using all of my own picks and entries I don't mind getting into the nitty gritty of what I am really doing...so here it goes...
I went through some back testing of the two trades that I am in right now and found how the particular stocks seem to work with respect to my indicators...more on those another time.
Badger Meter Inc. (BMI)
This stock moves well and has a nice pattern of observing various support and resistance levels far more often than breaking them. Volume levels are clean and well delineated and the price ranges often enough to produce a good number of trading opportunities. It's a keeper in my arsenal of stocks to trade.
There have been 26 trade setups in the last 12 months. 8 did not meet the entry target, 2 were losers (less than $2 ps) and the rest were up $55.50 ps.
I bought it on Friday at $38.50 based on a signal, but not mine. It was a buy under $40 but I had it down as a buy under $38. $38.50 is not too far off and the price entry has some reasonable trend support so I will play it out. The up target is $44.00.
Lincare Holdings (LNCR)
LNCR is the other longer term trade, it is a short placed on June 30th at $23.30. This one is a slow mover and I would not have traded it had I realized that it would tie up capital for so long to make it's moves. I did not do all of the back testing that I would normally plan as I doubt that I will continue tracking it. It does trade decent volume and I wouldn't mind so much holding it as a long position but it is in a serious long term downtrend right now....has been for almost three years and it has only moved $15 overall with a large drop of $12 in 2007 that took 6 months to finish.
Wider stops, more patience...I should check to see if I am going to get hit with a dividend payout soon.
The down target is somewhere just south of $20 and I will cover this trade rather than letting it go much farther.
That's it for active trades and I have nothing else tested yet. This is where the patience comes in. I will not just enter a trade until I have done the one year back test and determined that the stock is a good candidate. I plan on having a number of stocks, perhaps forty, to choose from at any given time. They will all have pre-set entry targets and use rule based following stops.
I estimate that I can choose a stock in a few minutes after doing a scan for my criteria. It should take about an hour to do a back test so I may only end up with a few per week to add to my list.
At some point in the future I will set these up with a semi automatic trigger program but I need to see some returns to justify the necessary time investment involved in writing that kind of software.
Jeff.
Monday, June 15, 2009
June 15th, the followup
The chart pretty much says it all. I placed my stop at somewhere around 10cents under my entry, as I mentioned...I have a 20cent loss allowance on SDS, 15 gets used the most often and I end up moving it too soon sometimes as well.
Nice entry, the right price, read the support bang on and called the trend day. I failed the alternate entries due to the price not consolidating as long as I expected it to...in both cases I should have pulled the trigger once the price was within my stop allowance given where the stop needed to be placed. There were four entry opportunities and I saw three of them setup, so all is not lost as I learned a valuable lesson in chart readig and trade judgement.
There was an easy $1 per share trade here and, if I used both stop plans and entered twice $1.20 per share.
I am planning on setting my stops on the charts from now on and setting my entry price accordingly. If the TICK sets up and the price is right then the trade is made...I need to set some sort of SMA band once I determine that an SMA is the rough stop setting as today was...less 5 - 10 cents.
Jeff.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Trading Journal
I have hit upon a nice comfortable method and setup to do my trade journalling on paper now. As much as I like having the nice charts I don't think that they are going to be as much of a reference as I thought they might. I see that Esignal has expanded the historical archive of intraday data, or are in process, so I can always refer back to any trade based on my journal entry. I may print the odd one or still notate them and log them here as well if I think they will be important reference.
This feels like a transition for me as I start to really see the nuances and interaction of the markets. Touching on the topic of too much information, I now find that blog posts are mostly confirmations of things that I am already doing or am trying to do in my trading. I am still struggling witht he execution of the trades, getting in just right and setting stops according to where they really should be. It's getting there.
Today's trading was disappointing only in that I was unable to capture the moves that I wanted to catch and saw setting up. I missed one to hesitation, one to interruption, one to away at lunch and one to lack of confidence in my trade idea at the time. All learning points though.
Having said that, saying my trading was disappointing is a little misleading in that I only had one losing trade of the four that I placed. The disappointment was not being there on the longer rides. One trade in particular I moved my stop intentionally to capture the momentum move that had just occurred from my entry BUT had I left my stop just 5 cents lower I would have doubled my profits... no big deal as the plan was the plan.
All in all I think I did well enough to consider it a successful day and it could easily have been profitable given more action on my part.
Here is a decent trade for today that I could have rode farther but still came out ahead on. The stops I need to work on but if I chose to just exit at better than break even I would be doing better. I just would rather work on slightly longer term trades than the short, almost scalping style of trades. There is, ultimately more money in holding for the moves.
TICK chart:
This feels like a transition for me as I start to really see the nuances and interaction of the markets. Touching on the topic of too much information, I now find that blog posts are mostly confirmations of things that I am already doing or am trying to do in my trading. I am still struggling witht he execution of the trades, getting in just right and setting stops according to where they really should be. It's getting there.
Today's trading was disappointing only in that I was unable to capture the moves that I wanted to catch and saw setting up. I missed one to hesitation, one to interruption, one to away at lunch and one to lack of confidence in my trade idea at the time. All learning points though.
Having said that, saying my trading was disappointing is a little misleading in that I only had one losing trade of the four that I placed. The disappointment was not being there on the longer rides. One trade in particular I moved my stop intentionally to capture the momentum move that had just occurred from my entry BUT had I left my stop just 5 cents lower I would have doubled my profits... no big deal as the plan was the plan.
All in all I think I did well enough to consider it a successful day and it could easily have been profitable given more action on my part.
Here is a decent trade for today that I could have rode farther but still came out ahead on. The stops I need to work on but if I chose to just exit at better than break even I would be doing better. I just would rather work on slightly longer term trades than the short, almost scalping style of trades. There is, ultimately more money in holding for the moves.
TICK chart:
Chart for SPY for the same period:
This was a typical PP200 trade with a TICK timed entry. The only thing better would have been a launch off of the black previous day high at the same time. As it was all of the moving averages were converging and lending seeming support to the price activity. The volume picked up after I was out as the price crossed the high line. I didn't get back to actively watching the chart until after the nice climb to the top started enough that I was price chasing and would need to large a stop to feel comfortable.
Jeff.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
June 9th, Scratched the day
I am not working on honing my range trading skills, I am playing with my TICK entry to catch reasonable trending. I don't need day long trends to capture what I am looking for but it appears that low volume ranging is just different enough to throw off my trading ideas.
So in that light I decided to just watch and not even track any trades later in the day. I noticed how the TICK and SPY price danced and have more information that I did before the day started. I did try to do some back charting to see if I could fit some hindsight trades into the activity and even that was tough. The TICK did not range wide so the triggers were very tight. The spread between the average high and average low as down to less then 300 points. Triggers work best when they are farther apart.
I did note that during these times the moving averages could be used for entries based on the TICK, not in the same manner, just use the TICK as a reference for an extreme price move to get a lower entry. There were a few such trades that I saw set up but did nothing with...unfamiliarity.
Golf tomorrow so likely no trading at all. My luck the market will decide on a direction and have a large trending move day.
Jeff.
So in that light I decided to just watch and not even track any trades later in the day. I noticed how the TICK and SPY price danced and have more information that I did before the day started. I did try to do some back charting to see if I could fit some hindsight trades into the activity and even that was tough. The TICK did not range wide so the triggers were very tight. The spread between the average high and average low as down to less then 300 points. Triggers work best when they are farther apart.
I did note that during these times the moving averages could be used for entries based on the TICK, not in the same manner, just use the TICK as a reference for an extreme price move to get a lower entry. There were a few such trades that I saw set up but did nothing with...unfamiliarity.
Golf tomorrow so likely no trading at all. My luck the market will decide on a direction and have a large trending move day.
Jeff.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Monday June 8th, play testing again.
Today was a day to play. I decided to not trade, I resisted for all but one trade and I timed it just plain wrong.
I broke the charts into AM and PM for clarity as I may refer to these later, seeing as this is a journal of sorts, and I would like to be able to see more of the detail.
First is the TICK for the AM with the green trade setup arrows and the black trade arrows. From the top are the SDS trades and from the bottom are the SPY trades...I decided to stick with SPY rather than SSO for a variety of reasons.
Any setup arrow not followed by a black trade arrow means that the trade was determined not a good entry due to chart indicators, upcoming resistance, pivot points, 200sma, already in a trade and a variety of others.
I broke the charts into AM and PM for clarity as I may refer to these later, seeing as this is a journal of sorts, and I would like to be able to see more of the detail.
First is the TICK for the AM with the green trade setup arrows and the black trade arrows. From the top are the SDS trades and from the bottom are the SPY trades...I decided to stick with SPY rather than SSO for a variety of reasons.
Any setup arrow not followed by a black trade arrow means that the trade was determined not a good entry due to chart indicators, upcoming resistance, pivot points, 200sma, already in a trade and a variety of others.
Here is the chart for SPY. Note that the first setup arrow without a trade was while in a trade already. I probably would not have entered here as the price was approaching the 200sma as potential resistance. The second was basically the same situation. Not a high probability entry
SDS chart for the AM.
The green lines indicating the stop adjustments are placed real time, as much as they appear to be set to match the price activity after the fact, they are not.
The afternoon TICK chart. Notice how it gets rather hairy in the late afternoon. It is good to be in a trade before this goes nuts as trying to pick an entry is tough when the volume spikes.
SPY in the PM. With better stop management I could have stayed in the first trade for the whole period but I got a little close and stopped out. I considered getting a real trade on the last one but I decided to stick to my plan as it could have easily gone against me...even though most of today's trades went positive.
I am always concerned when my play testing works out so well and the wind rate, let alone the win value, is so high. I know I use the same ideas that I might while trading live but I think that I let the stops go wider longer than when I trade for real. This gets me stopped out too soon on runners and at a loss sometimes when it turns right afterwards. Most of today's play trades were 20 cents on SPY and 15 cents on SDS for initial stop settings.
I'll work out the numbers on these later.
Jeff.
Friday, June 5, 2009
More Friday stuff.
I made one more trade near the end of the day...I did not realize it was so late or I might not have made the trade as I don't like having to stop late day trades as wide as they need. This was no exception, although I never looked at the time until into the trade was about to stop out...I had creeped the stop up slowly from the start as I felt wrong after entering the trade...I should have felt wrong BEFORE the trade. 4 minutes after stopping I saw the move start that I was looking for. It pulled back then continued on...the second pullback would not have hit my stop and the move ended up being a 40 cent run up in SDS. Would have seen 30 cents of it with tight EOD stops.
No charts today. I am cycling today so I like to get going as soon after work as I can.
Things learned today:
1) I can trade reversions
2) Don't try trading when on the phone
3) If it didn't work earlier, don't expect it to work later
#3 was funny, as I entered 4 cents higher than an earlier trade and stopped 3 cents higher. It may as well been the exact same trade as the price even jumped shortly after my trade in both cases. They were setup around the previous day low and close prices as resistance in SDS.
I will be going back over the day and setting trades according to strict entry and stop rules to see what kind of strategy would have worked and applying those rules to similar day setups in future. I know this smacks a little of curve fitting but if the curve fits ...why not wear it until it doesn't?
Jeff.
No charts today. I am cycling today so I like to get going as soon after work as I can.
Things learned today:
1) I can trade reversions
2) Don't try trading when on the phone
3) If it didn't work earlier, don't expect it to work later
#3 was funny, as I entered 4 cents higher than an earlier trade and stopped 3 cents higher. It may as well been the exact same trade as the price even jumped shortly after my trade in both cases. They were setup around the previous day low and close prices as resistance in SDS.
I will be going back over the day and setting trades according to strict entry and stop rules to see what kind of strategy would have worked and applying those rules to similar day setups in future. I know this smacks a little of curve fitting but if the curve fits ...why not wear it until it doesn't?
Jeff.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
June 4th
Not much to say today. Sort of a lazy uptrend with a range start and finish, so I don't think this really counts as a trend day. I stayed out of the SSO trades as I was expecting either a range or small move day as the volume was on the lower than average side all day until the EOD rush.
Note that the bars are closing in the bottom of the range.
Although the TICK could have been used for some upside trades I decided to not trade SSO as the moves were going to be rather small so my 100 share lots would hardly break even on a decent move. The upside was smaller than the downside so this was a test of my resolve to watch for downmoves. I hit one good trade and two small losers, one was a too tight stop issue as the idea was sound and the expected move was good. The wrong was really a speculative play for a reversion trade that did not materialize...then I called it quits for short (SDS) trades. I could use larger position sizing but I want to stick with 100 shares for a while yet.
I could have played other ETFs, specifically SPY for the upside moves but I was trying to avoid the downspikes that SPY exhibits. I expected that those would take out a stop. I see that may not be the case as if they did there would be a sudden huge runup of price as market orders were executed as other stops were also taken out at the spiked price...and I survived an SDS spike. Perhaps I do not completely understand what the spike represents. I recall getting caught and creating my own huge down spike on an old trade where I lost a fair chunk of change because of the spike. I think that the spike represents an anomolous fill and does not affect the bid/ask quote therefore the stop does not get triggered. I will rethink my staying away from SPY as a result.
I'll have to consider position sizing and price values when looking at SPY again in my risk management as I need to be playing both the up and down side of the market. SSO may still be a better play with 200 shares.
Jeff.
Note that the bars are closing in the bottom of the range.
Although the TICK could have been used for some upside trades I decided to not trade SSO as the moves were going to be rather small so my 100 share lots would hardly break even on a decent move. The upside was smaller than the downside so this was a test of my resolve to watch for downmoves. I hit one good trade and two small losers, one was a too tight stop issue as the idea was sound and the expected move was good. The wrong was really a speculative play for a reversion trade that did not materialize...then I called it quits for short (SDS) trades. I could use larger position sizing but I want to stick with 100 shares for a while yet.
I could have played other ETFs, specifically SPY for the upside moves but I was trying to avoid the downspikes that SPY exhibits. I expected that those would take out a stop. I see that may not be the case as if they did there would be a sudden huge runup of price as market orders were executed as other stops were also taken out at the spiked price...and I survived an SDS spike. Perhaps I do not completely understand what the spike represents. I recall getting caught and creating my own huge down spike on an old trade where I lost a fair chunk of change because of the spike. I think that the spike represents an anomolous fill and does not affect the bid/ask quote therefore the stop does not get triggered. I will rethink my staying away from SPY as a result.
I'll have to consider position sizing and price values when looking at SPY again in my risk management as I need to be playing both the up and down side of the market. SSO may still be a better play with 200 shares.
Jeff.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
June 3rd, levels and whatnot
I see others setting out price levels for the S&P 500 ETF SPY, the futures and other market indicators for public consumption. I have seen them and usually don't use them as they are not mine. Some of the pivots and various levels are from "proprietary" algorithms and methods...whatever works for me is what I go by and I need to know that I do not have to rely on someone else to supply my information...who knows when they may stop putting it out there?
Yesterday I placed important price points in SSO in my journal to see what stuck. I use simple Previous Day high and low, pre and post market ranges and perhaps some important and plainly obvious resistance or support levels from the previous day. Occasionally I will go back and see what might be important from a month or even a year ago but I have not really set those in writing for easy reference so far.
So, for yesterday's "trading" I had PD high of $27.81 and low of $26.80 and the pre and post range was $27.20 to $27.55.
Interestingly my SSO entries were from $27.52 to $27.65 and the exits were all $27.80 or $27.70. So the range that I was able to trade was the pre and post market high to the PD high.
I did not write down SDS levels but the ranging was inversely similar.
Today I only managed to squeeze in two trades. I planned on no SSO trades (long the S&P) as I expected a down day overall and perhaps even a trend.
SDS levels were marked but the only important ones were the premarket range, $53.47 to $54.00. Trading started in this range and passed the $54 early and never looked back...yet. I entered a trade at $54.11 but was stopped out early with very small profit as I was too anxious for a profit and not 100% sure of the coming move.
Second trade was just after 1000h at $54.45, I missed the pullback by keeping my stop at $54.30 then ratcheted it up to $54.67 before getting stopped out...impatience again.
Then lunch hit...or at least the pre-lunch hanging about that often happens which basically keeps me from actually placing trades. I did not get to look at the market again until about 1400h, the trend had trended and looked to be whipped as the days volume was petering off a bit. I did mark the entries at the beginning...the setup was at 1143h and the first of four primary triggers were from 1146h to 1206h. Given that I had already tried two trades in SDS it is more than fair to say that I would have placed more trades along the same plan.
Here is the SDS chart for the morning activity leading into the afternoon:
Assuming an entry on the high side of those red arrows...when I may have over ridden my plan and gone back to the PP200 style entry given the establishing trend and entered even better...there was a decent 60 cent climb using the 50sma (less 5 - 10 cents) as a stop and the R3 as the final resting place.
I am still ahead today regardless, though not a whole lot.
Jeff.
Yesterday I placed important price points in SSO in my journal to see what stuck. I use simple Previous Day high and low, pre and post market ranges and perhaps some important and plainly obvious resistance or support levels from the previous day. Occasionally I will go back and see what might be important from a month or even a year ago but I have not really set those in writing for easy reference so far.
So, for yesterday's "trading" I had PD high of $27.81 and low of $26.80 and the pre and post range was $27.20 to $27.55.
Interestingly my SSO entries were from $27.52 to $27.65 and the exits were all $27.80 or $27.70. So the range that I was able to trade was the pre and post market high to the PD high.
I did not write down SDS levels but the ranging was inversely similar.
Today I only managed to squeeze in two trades. I planned on no SSO trades (long the S&P) as I expected a down day overall and perhaps even a trend.
SDS levels were marked but the only important ones were the premarket range, $53.47 to $54.00. Trading started in this range and passed the $54 early and never looked back...yet. I entered a trade at $54.11 but was stopped out early with very small profit as I was too anxious for a profit and not 100% sure of the coming move.
Second trade was just after 1000h at $54.45, I missed the pullback by keeping my stop at $54.30 then ratcheted it up to $54.67 before getting stopped out...impatience again.
Then lunch hit...or at least the pre-lunch hanging about that often happens which basically keeps me from actually placing trades. I did not get to look at the market again until about 1400h, the trend had trended and looked to be whipped as the days volume was petering off a bit. I did mark the entries at the beginning...the setup was at 1143h and the first of four primary triggers were from 1146h to 1206h. Given that I had already tried two trades in SDS it is more than fair to say that I would have placed more trades along the same plan.
Here is the SDS chart for the morning activity leading into the afternoon:
Assuming an entry on the high side of those red arrows...when I may have over ridden my plan and gone back to the PP200 style entry given the establishing trend and entered even better...there was a decent 60 cent climb using the 50sma (less 5 - 10 cents) as a stop and the R3 as the final resting place.
I am still ahead today regardless, though not a whole lot.
Jeff.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
June 2nd...non-trading trading
Today I could not actively trade but I was able to follow along to see what would have been nice entries.
There were a total of 9 trades that I may have taken. A few more setup according to the TICK entries but were not good due to the price location, market situation and gut feeling...yes, the gut still plays a part, a smaller part than it used to though.
As I start to type this entry I see a final setup in the last 20 minutes of trading that I would like to trade, but prudence tells me to stay clear. The EOD volume is not as high as normal so I SHOULD be able to get in well and get out safely...but it is the end of the day afterall.
Actually, the day has been low volume overall. seeing as this is a consolidation after yesterday's runup I think that this bodes well for the bears. Personally I don't really care which way it goes as I would just like to be able to profit from the moves, trending or slow range bound are looking like the best for me right now to practise in.
Here is the TICK chart: setups are green arrows and trade triggers are black.
There were a total of 9 trades that I may have taken. A few more setup according to the TICK entries but were not good due to the price location, market situation and gut feeling...yes, the gut still plays a part, a smaller part than it used to though.
As I start to type this entry I see a final setup in the last 20 minutes of trading that I would like to trade, but prudence tells me to stay clear. The EOD volume is not as high as normal so I SHOULD be able to get in well and get out safely...but it is the end of the day afterall.
Actually, the day has been low volume overall. seeing as this is a consolidation after yesterday's runup I think that this bodes well for the bears. Personally I don't really care which way it goes as I would just like to be able to profit from the moves, trending or slow range bound are looking like the best for me right now to practise in.
Here is the TICK chart: setups are green arrows and trade triggers are black.
I checked the price entries based on the TICK spikes at the triggers and fudged about 2 cents or so against me and used tight stops due to the nature of the range trading today. The results are as follows:
SDS, 6 trades. 1 loser. $1.19 per share gained overall or 2.25% based on average price.
SSO, 3 trades. 0 losers. $0.42 per share gained overall or 1.56% based on average price.
So, single lots of both gross return of $162
Optimum position sizing of 200 SDS and 400 SSO would yeild $410
Fudging 30% against me puts the single lot return at $113 and optimum at $287.
Oh, commissions would be $90 and all these figures are in US dollars so I see a bit more at this time
I'll feel better when these are actual real trading results.
Jeff.
Monday, June 1, 2009
June 1st, new month, new outlook
Today was a day of learning.
That noon trade that I was monitoring got ahead of me, I left it ride and when I came back to it the price had climbing and pulled back steep enough that my stop was likely to get hit. I have learned in the past not to adjust a stop if the price is moving fast, especially on high volume, which this was. In modifying the stop the system cancels the first and reorders the second. I have had these rejected as the stop loss cannot be placed higher than the trading price. I have also had them get placed but the delay is large enough that the price just keeps going and I get a poor closing price. So I left it fro a very small profit.
Here is the TICK chart for the day.
Of these trades, 2 and 4 were not so great, small loss though. 6 was one of the more profitable of the day as I realised that I need to keep my stop tighter so I managed to snag the exit at the first pullback. I would not have tried for more as the 390VWMA was very close (the pinkish heavy line). i considered more momentum reversion style trades but decided I did not have earlier profits to play with.
Chart for SSO with it's three trades and stop lines.
Obviously missing that morning run up was a shame. #1 was a false start as I may have gotten in earlier or later for a better price so I ended up in #3 instead at the same price. Paying closer attention to #3 would have gained me another few cents at the end as I should have been up just below the 50 SMA and even tighter as the price approached the purple monthly R1. Same deal with #5. Leaving the prices alone too long before looking in on them is an issue today. I will be working on an automatic alert to let me know when a price is in jeopardy of turning based on the faster moving averages in the TICK...need some more research for that one. The entry alerts are doing well.
That noon trade that I was monitoring got ahead of me, I left it ride and when I came back to it the price had climbing and pulled back steep enough that my stop was likely to get hit. I have learned in the past not to adjust a stop if the price is moving fast, especially on high volume, which this was. In modifying the stop the system cancels the first and reorders the second. I have had these rejected as the stop loss cannot be placed higher than the trading price. I have also had them get placed but the delay is large enough that the price just keeps going and I get a poor closing price. So I left it fro a very small profit.
Here is the TICK chart for the day.
I know it is not the clearest in the worked but I decided to not break the day into AM / PM portions for time constraints. It is pretty clear that trades 2 through 6 were at least at the beginning of the TICK trend change. I need to work on my stops and my earlier entries as I get in a little later than I would like but my TICK timing at least doesn't get me nailed to the wall chasing a price and being way out of whack and getting whipsawed. Some of these trades were held for a longer period of time than my normal, which is a good sign all of it's own.
Chart for SDS and the three trades with the green stop lines.
Of these trades, 2 and 4 were not so great, small loss though. 6 was one of the more profitable of the day as I realised that I need to keep my stop tighter so I managed to snag the exit at the first pullback. I would not have tried for more as the 390VWMA was very close (the pinkish heavy line). i considered more momentum reversion style trades but decided I did not have earlier profits to play with.
Chart for SSO with it's three trades and stop lines.
Obviously missing that morning run up was a shame. #1 was a false start as I may have gotten in earlier or later for a better price so I ended up in #3 instead at the same price. Paying closer attention to #3 would have gained me another few cents at the end as I should have been up just below the 50 SMA and even tighter as the price approached the purple monthly R1. Same deal with #5. Leaving the prices alone too long before looking in on them is an issue today. I will be working on an automatic alert to let me know when a price is in jeopardy of turning based on the faster moving averages in the TICK...need some more research for that one. The entry alerts are doing well.All up I came out with about $13 and change profit.
Oh, new rule for me lately. I am not counting my commissions in my daily tallies as I do not want to get caught up in trying to break even based on them. I would rather work on having good trade ideas, good entries and exits and let the profits build. The commissions will look after themselves. I realise that they are a cost and must be considered so I do track them very closely in my overall P/L plan and data management, just not for trade dissection now.
For the record, commissions and SEC charges were a little over $60...so, yes, I am down approximately $47.
Jeff.
Friday, May 29, 2009
May 29th...small day
I did some trading today....I am finding that "trading" does not equate to placing trades as much as studying the market activity and getting a feel for where the trades are.
This was a funny day and I only placed one trade, made a few bucks as I caught a 20cent move in SDS as the S&P came off of the midweek high. I think that I am trying to hold onto my profits from yesterday too tightly. Get a little cash and I don't want to part with it so I was watching for perfect setups to enter...that led me to miss some nice trades, I tracked a 25cent trade in SSO and I see a couple of others since. Having said that it is a strange Friday as volume was down, end of the month so I don't regret not being active.
I did work on my audible alert system for Esignal. I now can set a fast and slow SMA to alert me with one sound as the fast crosses upward and another as it crosses downward. I plan on using the 10 SMA for a pre-alert, the 15 SMA as the setup and the 30 as the slow SMA all in the TICK data. The next pullback (or rally) into the opposing 100/195 high low average band will be the trigger, no alert and I would like to get this setup to place the arrows for each step. I actually missed a nice trade due to dinking with the arrow on the TICK chart instead of just watching the activity.
I noticed a strange pattern in the TICK data candles today, one that I have noted on other days also. The candles are sparse and there is not much "beef" as the TICK swings from one range to another. Higher volatility usually accompanies this along with fairly tight ranging and less predictable price activity. I plan on going back and determining what the circumstances are but I think that it will have to do with volume and expectations coming off of a certain types of preceding days.
Interestingly this was typical of the TSX and the related TICK data. It looked very similar and I recall it not being a very good indicator.
I don't have charts to illustrate this right now but I wanted to make a note of it.
Jeff.
This was a funny day and I only placed one trade, made a few bucks as I caught a 20cent move in SDS as the S&P came off of the midweek high. I think that I am trying to hold onto my profits from yesterday too tightly. Get a little cash and I don't want to part with it so I was watching for perfect setups to enter...that led me to miss some nice trades, I tracked a 25cent trade in SSO and I see a couple of others since. Having said that it is a strange Friday as volume was down, end of the month so I don't regret not being active.
I did work on my audible alert system for Esignal. I now can set a fast and slow SMA to alert me with one sound as the fast crosses upward and another as it crosses downward. I plan on using the 10 SMA for a pre-alert, the 15 SMA as the setup and the 30 as the slow SMA all in the TICK data. The next pullback (or rally) into the opposing 100/195 high low average band will be the trigger, no alert and I would like to get this setup to place the arrows for each step. I actually missed a nice trade due to dinking with the arrow on the TICK chart instead of just watching the activity.
I noticed a strange pattern in the TICK data candles today, one that I have noted on other days also. The candles are sparse and there is not much "beef" as the TICK swings from one range to another. Higher volatility usually accompanies this along with fairly tight ranging and less predictable price activity. I plan on going back and determining what the circumstances are but I think that it will have to do with volume and expectations coming off of a certain types of preceding days.
Interestingly this was typical of the TSX and the related TICK data. It looked very similar and I recall it not being a very good indicator.
I don't have charts to illustrate this right now but I wanted to make a note of it.
Jeff.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
That's more like it.
I just applied my TICK trading rigorously on the initial move on the S&P500 this morning. The action looks to be muted for a while as everyone takes a breather, consolidates, covers and what-not so I figured I would post the "one good trade" of the day. If I really trusted my entries I would be in SSO right now as the TICK says that it is heading back up...perhaps the pivot point is the new target for a reversion trade...I will sit on my profits for now rather than taking a slow trade that I don't completely trust.
TICK:
TICK:
Note the declining TICK highs even though the SPX is not moving all that much this is like setting a spring and just winding it up until it gets let loose. I used the trigger (black arrow) but jumped it a bit as I would like to see it hit or pass the upper range, I went with the position of price on the chart as well and it was just testing the 50 sma and the pivot point a bit, looked like a good technical entry anyway.
SDS:
Nice entry at $58.80. I kept the sto rather steep as I figured this may be a short lived momentum style trade, glad I did as I exited at $60.12 for a $1.32 gain.
I see that I should have trusted my reversion indication as the SPX did indeed head back up after this quick sell off. I will wait and watch for a setup once everything gets near the pivot point again though. Perhaps I will not trade anymore as I might expect a range day forming until mid afternoon. I need to study more before trying range days again as I do not do very well in them, I don't think I trust my judgement yet.
Jeff.
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