Since I am now no longer real time connected I am feeling like old times, for me, when I had to press the refresh tab to get up to date quotes and not see the charts and the orders and executions flowing. It is quite a step back.
Having said that, this change will force me into an end of day mentality which should be better for the trading style I am looking at shifting towards in future.
Today I placed a couple of orders based on yesterday's closing prices plus a little bit of breathing room and was filled within the first few minutes. Straight stock plays. Nice in one sense as there is no real time constraint due to time decay at least. Small priced stocks, both less than $5 to let me buy a larger position and see breakeven earlier (commission consideration here)
I am expecting the market to rally somewhat over the next short term as the S&P is bouncing around the old gap levels from August of 2008...August 6th to be precise. The entire time since September 18th, 2009, when this old gap range was re-touched, has seen the gap range as a bit of resistance initially, almost not worth noting. Since November 12th it turned support as it has been regularly tested 4 times since.
Last week saw the S&P drop right into the range again and now the upper end is resistance and the lower is support as it trades in this really tight range between about 1070 and 1105.
While I am far from being bullish on the market I do believe that we will see a return to the mid January level of 1150 at least once more time before it turns south for a longer drop.
If I am wrong I may have to close the put sides of some of my iron condor trades, as previously mentioned. If I am right I only need to be right until February expiration and even then I can still be wrong as long as the market does not sell off too strongly over the next few weeks.
Jeff.
Questrade, My direct access discount broker.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Cutting back...and withdrawal
Well, do to the much reduced trading activity my Questrade Pro platform is going to cost me $20 a month...or is it $30? No matter, my trading volume is next to nothing right now so it hardly justifies keeping the nicer platform. I liked being able to easily click between accounts and set trades on the fly while watching the real time data stream along, pre and post-market as well.
Now I suffer the withdrawal of not having real time information to work with... although my current trade plan does not need it it was very addicting to have and will be missed.
Having said that, most of what I am looking at trading going forward has more to do with indices than stocks and seemingly I can get free access to realtime S&P500 charts and some other indices.
BPI charts are EOD anyway, I was using trade entries based on previous day numbers, even P&F charts are all EOD. All of my trades are going to be in the 30 day range for now so I really don't need the up to the second information.
Well, due to my needing access to my trading account I wandered over to the QuestraderWeb and the Webtrader browser based trading platforms. The Webtrader is almost unusable for me now as it is just far too restricting. QuestraderWeb is OK. I forgot how much information is available through that platform...tons of company stats, ETF listings, sector lists and news feeds. Quite a bit looks to be realtime as well.
This platform should look after my newer trading needs nicely. With the new options format it will be easier as I can check options without having to try to decipher which option I am looking at anymore.
So, I am down to paying for a monthly subscription to Esignal with an EOD delayed data connection...and that is it for my playing. I could count the Optioneer fees but they haven't kicked in as of yet. I will make liberal use of the stockcharts.com for BPI and P&F when needed.
I will ride out January and see where I go for my play trading next in February.
Jeff.
Now I suffer the withdrawal of not having real time information to work with... although my current trade plan does not need it it was very addicting to have and will be missed.
Having said that, most of what I am looking at trading going forward has more to do with indices than stocks and seemingly I can get free access to realtime S&P500 charts and some other indices.
BPI charts are EOD anyway, I was using trade entries based on previous day numbers, even P&F charts are all EOD. All of my trades are going to be in the 30 day range for now so I really don't need the up to the second information.
Well, due to my needing access to my trading account I wandered over to the QuestraderWeb and the Webtrader browser based trading platforms. The Webtrader is almost unusable for me now as it is just far too restricting. QuestraderWeb is OK. I forgot how much information is available through that platform...tons of company stats, ETF listings, sector lists and news feeds. Quite a bit looks to be realtime as well.
This platform should look after my newer trading needs nicely. With the new options format it will be easier as I can check options without having to try to decipher which option I am looking at anymore.
So, I am down to paying for a monthly subscription to Esignal with an EOD delayed data connection...and that is it for my playing. I could count the Optioneer fees but they haven't kicked in as of yet. I will make liberal use of the stockcharts.com for BPI and P&F when needed.
I will ride out January and see where I go for my play trading next in February.
Jeff.
More details on "All In"
I was lamenting the fact that I had no additional cash to plunk down on the new condor trades with the new lower S&P500 levels when I recalled that I have last months profits to play with, not just the base cash. Now I happen to be switching accounting companies for my US trading so it has been split between the new and old while trades settle so I don't have it all as one lump sum.
Seeing as I have access to the typical futures contracts and a condor needs up to $5,000 spare cash ($250 per point with 20 point spreads) I am limited to trades in that neighbourhood normally. I also have access to the E-mini contracts as well which have $50 points. The same 20 point spread will tie up only $1,000. As long as my 6% trade rule holds there is no reason why I cannot use these to "top off" my trading while I am in between $5k increments.
Today I placed an Emini for February EOM to top off my trades.
This little gem of a move will generally increase the profit potential of my entire account as I can now make all of my money and more of my profits work for me sooner.
Figuring that I can place $1000, $2000, $3000 or $4000 trades will serve to top off my profits in the neighbourhood of an additional $1800 assuming an on average trade size of $2500. This is a trade volume of $30,000 over the year at my 6% target for each month.
Nice bonus.
On the outstanding trade front, I am considering closing the put sides of my trades and letting the call side run. The broker deems the call risk so minimal that I can leave those call spreads active to get full profit from that side of the trade. This allows me to use my full capital buying power to open new trades at the new levels. I would like to see them closed today or tomorrow to cut risk and be able to put new trades on to still expire in February. This cuts losses now as well as creates a small compensation with the existing call spreads and lets me see full capital applied to other trades in February. I think that I can aim for either a break even or a small profit. I need to run some numbers to see how lose I am though.
Jeff.
Seeing as I have access to the typical futures contracts and a condor needs up to $5,000 spare cash ($250 per point with 20 point spreads) I am limited to trades in that neighbourhood normally. I also have access to the E-mini contracts as well which have $50 points. The same 20 point spread will tie up only $1,000. As long as my 6% trade rule holds there is no reason why I cannot use these to "top off" my trading while I am in between $5k increments.
Today I placed an Emini for February EOM to top off my trades.
This little gem of a move will generally increase the profit potential of my entire account as I can now make all of my money and more of my profits work for me sooner.
Figuring that I can place $1000, $2000, $3000 or $4000 trades will serve to top off my profits in the neighbourhood of an additional $1800 assuming an on average trade size of $2500. This is a trade volume of $30,000 over the year at my 6% target for each month.
Nice bonus.
On the outstanding trade front, I am considering closing the put sides of my trades and letting the call side run. The broker deems the call risk so minimal that I can leave those call spreads active to get full profit from that side of the trade. This allows me to use my full capital buying power to open new trades at the new levels. I would like to see them closed today or tomorrow to cut risk and be able to put new trades on to still expire in February. This cuts losses now as well as creates a small compensation with the existing call spreads and lets me see full capital applied to other trades in February. I think that I can aim for either a break even or a small profit. I need to run some numbers to see how lose I am though.
Jeff.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
So much for sitting back.
Well, the market fell off pretty steep in the last two days. My idea of playing a daytrade off the gap would not have worked as, even though there was a gap, it was small. The pre-market basically started where Thursday's post market ended and headed down from there so the gap was only due tot he regular market hours start. The drop and rally were only indicators that it was going to head south, which it did.
But I am not daytrading right now.
My latest condors are giving me some high risk indications as the worst thing that can happen in an iron condor is for the underlying to have a large move right off the bat. Up is not so bad as it is usually coupled with a lowering of the VIX so the put premiums follow a depreciation pattern that makes up for call premiums increase, sort of. in the case of a large drop the VIX jumps, the puts get overly inflated and the calls cannot hope to make up for that loss in premium credit so a larger off the gun drop in profits is in order.
And I had two solid days of large drops putting my positions deep out of the money over all. While this could be a setback it is not catastrophic, just poor timing with me putting so much into the trades. I still hope to have my next cash deposit in in time to place two more February EOM trades, at this point to help make up for a potential loss if I have to close out the current trades. Those trades, due to the higher volatility, will have a wider margin and allow for a greater potential market move. I was attempting to set trades that were favouring a larger profit on the call side but was finding that execution was not going in my favour due to being a the odd trade out...so I stopped. I should have pursued that course longer as it would have been the better option.
I may consider placing call only trades next as well...at least it is worth investigating.
About closing the trades... I would only close the put side of the trade as that is the losing side. Even at that I would only close out the short put first as that is the primary source of the loss. If I feel that the market is still going to head down then I can leave the long put in place and hope to regain some profits as a result while it appreciates. The downside of that plan is that closing the short put only to have the market rally would force me to close the long put as it then starts to become a losing position as well... thus compounding my losses.
I went back and checked to see when we have had a similar patter, two large drops following longish consolidation. In the last 11 months anything remotely similar has bounced back and continued up afterwards. In the 6 months prior to that there were a number of cases that were during the downtrend market move and prior to that there were a large number that were much larger single day moves.
All in all looking back is inconclusive to provide any light on a next move as the market can, and has, done all sorts of variations that are both positive and negative under the current circumstances.
So, sitting back and not watching is not working out like I thought. It is all in the timing. Had I done larger trades prior to this I would be sitting pretty and working soley off of profits rather than having to consider that my closing losing trades might actuall eat into my original capital base.
Here's to a possible rally or further consolidation over the coming weeks.
Jeff.
But I am not daytrading right now.
My latest condors are giving me some high risk indications as the worst thing that can happen in an iron condor is for the underlying to have a large move right off the bat. Up is not so bad as it is usually coupled with a lowering of the VIX so the put premiums follow a depreciation pattern that makes up for call premiums increase, sort of. in the case of a large drop the VIX jumps, the puts get overly inflated and the calls cannot hope to make up for that loss in premium credit so a larger off the gun drop in profits is in order.
And I had two solid days of large drops putting my positions deep out of the money over all. While this could be a setback it is not catastrophic, just poor timing with me putting so much into the trades. I still hope to have my next cash deposit in in time to place two more February EOM trades, at this point to help make up for a potential loss if I have to close out the current trades. Those trades, due to the higher volatility, will have a wider margin and allow for a greater potential market move. I was attempting to set trades that were favouring a larger profit on the call side but was finding that execution was not going in my favour due to being a the odd trade out...so I stopped. I should have pursued that course longer as it would have been the better option.
I may consider placing call only trades next as well...at least it is worth investigating.
About closing the trades... I would only close the put side of the trade as that is the losing side. Even at that I would only close out the short put first as that is the primary source of the loss. If I feel that the market is still going to head down then I can leave the long put in place and hope to regain some profits as a result while it appreciates. The downside of that plan is that closing the short put only to have the market rally would force me to close the long put as it then starts to become a losing position as well... thus compounding my losses.
I went back and checked to see when we have had a similar patter, two large drops following longish consolidation. In the last 11 months anything remotely similar has bounced back and continued up afterwards. In the 6 months prior to that there were a number of cases that were during the downtrend market move and prior to that there were a large number that were much larger single day moves.
All in all looking back is inconclusive to provide any light on a next move as the market can, and has, done all sorts of variations that are both positive and negative under the current circumstances.
So, sitting back and not watching is not working out like I thought. It is all in the timing. Had I done larger trades prior to this I would be sitting pretty and working soley off of profits rather than having to consider that my closing losing trades might actuall eat into my original capital base.
Here's to a possible rally or further consolidation over the coming weeks.
Jeff.
Friday, January 22, 2010
This is what it is all about....
Yep. Today I sit back and don't have to even think about the markets as I have as much capital in play as I can at this point...all in. My targets for the active trades are all over 6% ROR.
Now I will keep an eye on the S&P500 levels but only out of curiosity. Today I expect a sideways day after yesterday's steep drop or even a small rally to re-coupe some of the losses. There was lots of volume to give the down move some credence and even though it could keep going down I expect that it is unlikely. Even if it does I have the bottom side of my trades fairly far down...under 1100 anyway. Worst case I may close out the puts and leave the calls to run...I would add more calls to the mix should I end up doing that though.
So, it probably will open with a small gap down, watch for the gap to close and the rest is up in the air. If I were daytrading SPY I would go long if the gap is an appreciable size.
Having said all that I have had a bearish outlook for the last while and this sort of justifies it. Even so I really don't have a real bias one way or the other as the price will tell all and that can only happen in hindsight anyway. Wide spreads, both sides... best possible setup.
Jeff.
Now I will keep an eye on the S&P500 levels but only out of curiosity. Today I expect a sideways day after yesterday's steep drop or even a small rally to re-coupe some of the losses. There was lots of volume to give the down move some credence and even though it could keep going down I expect that it is unlikely. Even if it does I have the bottom side of my trades fairly far down...under 1100 anyway. Worst case I may close out the puts and leave the calls to run...I would add more calls to the mix should I end up doing that though.
So, it probably will open with a small gap down, watch for the gap to close and the rest is up in the air. If I were daytrading SPY I would go long if the gap is an appreciable size.
Having said all that I have had a bearish outlook for the last while and this sort of justifies it. Even so I really don't have a real bias one way or the other as the price will tell all and that can only happen in hindsight anyway. Wide spreads, both sides... best possible setup.
Jeff.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
All Out to All In
Well, back to all in now. I split my capital into two setups. The first was yesterday's third Friday expiry. I entered today into the EOM and put another small amount onto another trade for the third Friday.
That makes next month's target 6.82% ROR or slightly less ROI as this is all but a small bit of my current balance. I would like to see more trades for the EOM but I don't think that my next cheque will make it there in time to clear for more trades... I'll hold them for March expiry's I guess.
It is relieving to not have to be concerned about getting trades filled now...although the large drop in the market may give thought to other issues as I also have put side trades on all of these trades. We'll see how it shakes down in the coming days. I suspect support around the 1100 level.
At least it does not have to bounce for me to make money, just slow down enough to keep the S&P level from hitting my short put strike level.
Jeff.
That makes next month's target 6.82% ROR or slightly less ROI as this is all but a small bit of my current balance. I would like to see more trades for the EOM but I don't think that my next cheque will make it there in time to clear for more trades... I'll hold them for March expiry's I guess.
It is relieving to not have to be concerned about getting trades filled now...although the large drop in the market may give thought to other issues as I also have put side trades on all of these trades. We'll see how it shakes down in the coming days. I suspect support around the 1100 level.
At least it does not have to bounce for me to make money, just slow down enough to keep the S&P level from hitting my short put strike level.
Jeff.
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