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Sunday, June 22, 2008

BVF - Biovail

This is a Short position that I entered on May 21st

Ticker symbol - BVF

Company - Biovail

I was stopped out on this trade on Thursday for almost a 2% overall realized gain...OK but the target was much higher than that...I got $1 per share and I was going for about $3.50.

I still think there is $2 left in this TWT down so I will most likely sell short tomorrow or Tuesday.


The red arrow is my stopped out point,

The green is my next expected short sell point.

The thick green line just above the upper blue trend line is my stop line...I did well in that it got me past the rally in the first week of June that actually touched the trend line...I learned from the ATD/B stop out to watch for this.

The long red line is the TWT line for the latest uptrend and I expected the price to rally before it crossed this line, I wasn't disappointed.

My mistake was once the line was crossed I got the stop following the heavy dashed green line which you see intersects at my stop point, that line was my new stop line.

The red circle is the point where I should have been watching for my stop to start heading down as the 50sma (pink) and the 30sma (blue) will intersect very close to the intersection of the red TWT and my original green stop line. I got too jumpy in trying to get my stop "in the money". As a result I expect to lose about $0.50 of the possible gains and I now need to re-enter a trade and start with a potential loss all over again.

The plan

Either enter a short sell Monday morning OR wait until Tuesday to see the downtrend re-established...I will tend towards the Monday entry as the MACD looks good for a continuation, circled in blue and the trend is more likely to continue anyway than not. It is worth noting that my price will be very close to where the price would have been without the Thursday jump in price.

The Lesson:

Back to the stop setting. This seems to be a regular thing for me so I need to just pay attention to the moving averages, extend the TWT lines and take note of them as resistance and support and try not to get over anxious about locking in gains while getting the stops set.

JD.

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