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Thursday, May 29, 2008

Statistical restart

I was reviewing the account last night and, after paring the last of the non-CTP stocks yesterday, I decided to only track the actual CTP trades. As I have been ahead and behind in my account as far as profit and loss is concerned since I started playing in February I have never really worried much about the real hard numbers, just the generalities. As long as I had enough cash left to continue running my tests I was happy. Now that I am tracking accurately and making consistant gains I feel that I should keep the record straight with regards to the trades that actually follow my plan within this trial...mostly in fairness to the plan and to justify the time I've spent getting this plan on the move. Perhaps it's a little ego rub too... [;^)

So, of the 8 trades four have been according to plan and four have not.

Non-plan - RUS, SW, TET/UN, SIF/UN, I pared the last of these yesterday.

Plan - ATD/B (no longer active), LNR, BVF, HF (active)

The company names are of little import here as I am tracking only price action. If anyone is interested you can go to TSX.com and enter the symbols into the "Get Quote" box. This will give more information and website links for the companies.

I will still base the returns on the initial $5,000 for percentage calculations.

The timeline still stands as one of the first trades, LNR which is still active, did follow the plan even though it would be considered a late stage entry.

My goal has not changed, 1.5% per week. I'd like to see it compounded each month or the equivalent.

While this will make the numbers look better right now, I feel it is a truer representation of the efficacy of the CTP trade strategy. Interestingly 3 of the 4 trades that are removed from the trial were the ones that lost some money while one made a profit.

I will still be keeping general account numbers for my own information but posting only current CTP trade stats. In the long run, having left these stats alone or updating them would make little difference.

JD.

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