So to gather all the items that I looked at to day to determine my plan I included:
Current trading price of gold (UP)
Activity of the European market (FTSE) (neutral)
NYSE cumulative TICK (DOWN)
Global Gold Index (up but downtrending slightly)
This looked like a higher opening but a range trading day.
Figuring on that I decided on a position very early in HGD to play the Global Gold short ETF to fade the opening move with a back up of reversing in to HGU long ETF upon failure of plan A.
I made a crucial mistake. I thought that the orange line was 1/2 R1 when it was, in fact, 1/2 R2. This meant that the opening price was higher than I thought...opening above R1 leads me to aim for a long position rather than a short or at least give the price more time to decide where it might be heading...a little consolidation period was in order. So I got shaken out of HGD and lost 7 cents per share...3 more than I anticipated due to a slow order execution.
Reversing into HGU worked out well as I gained 15 cps. Rather than trying to play htis little downside with HGD I waited it out to see where the price would go, seeing my earlier mistake I figured that the day was likely going to head up and perhaps hit R2... the third trade was in,YRI Yamana Resources, see chart below. I intended to stay in and hold this one but got stopped out by a too close stop setting, still saw 6 cps.
My last trade was a last minute (for me) entry to see if my gut was right about still going long given that the price of Global Gold had already passed R2. Actually, no gut involved, straight technical analysis and longer term swing style trade entry using the 30 and 50 sma as my trade entry criteria. I could have stopped this one closer and seen more profit but 5 cps was enough to keep me happy as this was a tech move not a profit move, I managed to catch the second highest peak of the day. Trying to catch the last one would likely have had me stuck in the trade overnight.
Yamana Resources, YRI
This chart has some interesting setups and things going on. I was not really paying attention tot he volume but the rough trendlines in the volume chart are good indications of things to come in the stock price, classic supply and demand at work. This is one of the reason I like stocks over ETFs, more information.
The volume shrinks as the price drops, bottoms and consolidates. This goes from a negative convergence to a negative divergence. As the volume levels off the price wavers just above yesterday's high, at the convergence of the SMAs and above the 1/2R1 line...perfect. I had about 5 chances to enter this trade at the same target price, or just hold it for a 5 cps risk until it moved in my favour...which it did. I used the first prime opportunity, my nature, and rode it through, it was a shame that I did not let the break even stop ride a little longer to let the price move farther...oh well.
Deciding to move the stop to take some profits or leaving it to give the price room to move is my greatest hurdle and costs me the most potential profits. I need to work out a plan of action that is consistent here...either take early small profits all the time (I can do that as my risks are also very small) or let the price ride all the time (I can also do that as I may lots of calls that would net some really nice gains had I let them go).
The important thing that I am doing t\is to get stops set very early, immediately after the entry to stop losses form getting away on me and to prevent a connection failure causing a loss as well.
Enough for today. More fun in store for tomorrow.
Oh, stats for today,
Winners vs losers 3 : 1
$winners/$losers 1.24 : 1
Net gain 19 cents per share
Jeff.
No comments:
Post a Comment