TICK timing gets complicated

In an effort to simplify the trade decisions based on the TICK values the chart gets more complicated. This is typical of trying to find something that is "fool proof".

I added moving averages of the high and low values a while ago. I started with the 390 minute (1 trading day) and now added 195 minute (1/2 a trading day) to get an average range of the TICK values. I am toying with the 100 minute now but I think it is too short for my purpose. Ideally the period should match the average duration of an intraday trend, so I figured that a decent trend is about 1/2 a day long.

I had Bollinger Bands on for a while but did not find them very useful in any consistent manner. The moving average high low band gives a range that seems to be reasonable. As the 15 crosses the 30, say on the way up, I start watching for an entry. Using the 195 band I wait for a low spike through the low band and, if the chart does not contradict this move, place a trade.

More generally the bands can act as a trend indicator. As the MA cascade nudges one side of the range it is time to start watching for a reversal or consolidation. The idea here is that I might already be in a trade from the other direction and this would lead to a tightening of the stop or an exit, depending on a number of chart and market factors. Determining whether the market will likely trend, or even the direction of the first major move would be a bonus in that this system would act as a confirmation of that call. Of course, if I could make that call consistantly I would not need to bother with this whole TICK notion.

As much as I would love a mechanical system to be able to crank out trades and profit I don't see that happening here. There will always be a factor of market analysis, chart reading and discretionary trading involved that would be far to complicated to actually try to program. The best I could hope for is some method of alerting that a decent setup is setting up.

Market is about to open. Friday before the long weekend should prove a slow market as volume is probably going to be light. If the spread is 2 cents or more on a regular basis I will likely leave trading until next week and concentrate on studying today.

Jeff.