I got back in yesterday but I seemed to have lost a little of my edge.
I still have Agnico Eagle Mines as my target stock, AEM.TO with trade sizes of 100 shares.
I popped two decent biggish losses in the mix, only biggish (over $20) because I let them go too long, both would have been small profits if I had exited when I said I was going to. The rest were small losses. (-4.74%) for the day, nice. This was more a "jump back in and see what happens day". I didn't anticipate gains.
Today I faired better. One trade, +1.39%. I caught a small 72 cent slider for 52 of the cents. I just watched and called this like I would have in the past... For the record this would have me stop for the day as it is already 0.39% over my daily goal...unless I saw a nice setup taking place...today looks like a wallowing day though. Had I been on the ball yesterday I should have been able to do better as the price slid pretty well. All in the fun though.
This leads to a rule review.
Daily losses should be cut closer AND next day trading must not be performed to try to recoupe a previous loss...it MUST stand alone as a daily goal otherwise emotion gets in the way...I would have placed additional trades this morning and I can almost guarantee that they would have been losers on some level due to the wallowing. This rule needs to be used even for individual trades.
I learned that one on my high volume testing day a while ago...12-16 trades with about a $400 loss for the day, one trade fed the next which fed the next and only a very few were well placed and gained, and even those were just luck.
I updated my spreadsheet today while waiting for the next trade setup, which is not materializing at all, to calculate my returns based on my actual account balance running as I enter the trade data. This gives me a more accurate picture rather than just going from a preset balance all the time. It makes the gains look better but makes the losses look worse...all in all it is real and adds a certain amount of compounding if I always meet my goal based on the current balance... Headgame with the numbers at this point though.
An interesting observation about setting the return percentages off of the running balance. This will serve to move me into higher volume trading gradually and automaticcally. As the balance grows the trading either has to be more profitable per trade (which is not really the goal) or just more trades per day, then on to larger sized trades as time progresses. I consider it a built in training tool, kind of like increasing the weights at the gym. The other factor is that this can serve to attenuate the trading frequency and curb any chance of overtrading...which is what leads to losses often. Headgames, if I follow this to the "T" then my results will determine how my trading practices develop.
I did massage my combined (real and fake) sheet to match as well. I pop the odd faker in the mix as I see a speculative move setup and call it but don't quite have the balls, or un-interrupted time, to actually place the trade...or perhaps I hesitated that moment before the change starts. I changed it to allow fake trades on the same days as real trades. This gives me a real performance, pure fake performance and combined performance numbers. If the fakers outstrip the real then I should pay more attention to my gut calls.
Followup to the trading, about 10:45 the wallowing came to an end and I was not really there to trade the first slide right off of the pivot point for the day... $41.20 was my target entry with the PP of $41.24...not that they always work out that close but it did today, I had that price in my order box often. Generally the price remained bracketed between yesterday's low and today's early morning high. I usually try to pick some points that look like they may be significant from the previous day price, usually the close or high/low prices in addition to the pivot points, just gives me some targets and references. They don't always work out to be resistance or support but can very often prove so.
That's about all for today. Just a little rambling.
Jeff
Questrade, My direct access discount broker.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Just some month end odds
I went back to check my September through November trading, both fake and real combined, and found only 18 days that I traded. I tried a few things in there that were outside of my rule book so I shouldn't expect anything great, in fact one month had an overall 10% or so loss due to some dinking around.
Even after that I saw a 0.73% daily average net gain over the period, total of 13.14%. I don't consider this a great return as my goal for the same period would have been 48% had I been trading four of five days per week for the three months. Although my goal is 4% per week, it is really 1% per day first...so I am only really off by less than 5%, not too bad.
As much as I don't like to shed too rosy a light on my numbers I think it fair to show the reality of it in good light at least. I could eliminate my dinking and see numbers that exceed my goal neatly...but the trades are the trades real or fake at this point.
No matter what my circumstance right now I consider myself in good shape compared to the classic buy and holders as my cash position is doing better than the majority of portfolios for the last while. I always believe that the proof is in the pudding so I hope to be able to apply my trading in the coming weeks.
On a small side note, AEM price is climbing a bit and I sincerely hope that it does not cross the $50 mark before January as the Tax Free Savings Account limit will be $5000 and I like to stick with 100 share trades, even lots work better, and the TFSA will be a cash account...so if the price is higher than $50 I will have to pare down the trade size to stay under the $5K cash limit, no margin use with this account. Bummer.
I may consider switching to a financial to stay under this $50 self imposed restriction, CM perhaps. I have tracked it in the past.
Another side note, my old CTP (Counter Trend Positioning) plan would have done very well over the last while due to the nice drops in some of the stock that I was tracking. Quite a few of them are down well over 50% or more now and look like they might be in a position to start heading back up if the companies are still sound. I will probably start back into it once I get my Day trading working well and have a balance that exceeds my trade sizes by a healthy margin.
I know, I am doing this backwards to common thinking. DTing is supposed to compose only 10% of your portfolio. Seeing as I do not count my RRSP account in this, stinky mutual funds, I am DTing 100% of my account and may use smaller percentages for longer term trading, followed by old school investing. I have a few drips but I do not plan on contributing to them too much until I get a positive cashflow in my account.
Jeff.
Even after that I saw a 0.73% daily average net gain over the period, total of 13.14%. I don't consider this a great return as my goal for the same period would have been 48% had I been trading four of five days per week for the three months. Although my goal is 4% per week, it is really 1% per day first...so I am only really off by less than 5%, not too bad.
As much as I don't like to shed too rosy a light on my numbers I think it fair to show the reality of it in good light at least. I could eliminate my dinking and see numbers that exceed my goal neatly...but the trades are the trades real or fake at this point.
No matter what my circumstance right now I consider myself in good shape compared to the classic buy and holders as my cash position is doing better than the majority of portfolios for the last while. I always believe that the proof is in the pudding so I hope to be able to apply my trading in the coming weeks.
On a small side note, AEM price is climbing a bit and I sincerely hope that it does not cross the $50 mark before January as the Tax Free Savings Account limit will be $5000 and I like to stick with 100 share trades, even lots work better, and the TFSA will be a cash account...so if the price is higher than $50 I will have to pare down the trade size to stay under the $5K cash limit, no margin use with this account. Bummer.
I may consider switching to a financial to stay under this $50 self imposed restriction, CM perhaps. I have tracked it in the past.
Another side note, my old CTP (Counter Trend Positioning) plan would have done very well over the last while due to the nice drops in some of the stock that I was tracking. Quite a few of them are down well over 50% or more now and look like they might be in a position to start heading back up if the companies are still sound. I will probably start back into it once I get my Day trading working well and have a balance that exceeds my trade sizes by a healthy margin.
I know, I am doing this backwards to common thinking. DTing is supposed to compose only 10% of your portfolio. Seeing as I do not count my RRSP account in this, stinky mutual funds, I am DTing 100% of my account and may use smaller percentages for longer term trading, followed by old school investing. I have a few drips but I do not plan on contributing to them too much until I get a positive cashflow in my account.
Jeff.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Questrade and VTSO
I notice a lot of people ending up in my blog after searching for Questrade and VTSO.
(This is an update from April 2009, VTSOs are not available for TSX and Venture Candian exchanges, this has nothing to do with Questrade as VTSO and regular stop loss orders work fine in the Amercan exchanges. I was advised earlier that the problem had to do with some technical difficulties with the operating platform.)
I think I referenced that a little while ago. I either chalked it up to a change in the VTSO function of perhaps just an influx of new traders. If anyone ends up here on a search for answers regarding VTSO or any Questrade issue I don't mind trying to answer any questions. You can to send an email or add a comment, I'll respond. I have tried almost everything that can be done with regular stock trading, and a few things that they didn't like too.
I didn't notice any changes to the VTSO use on their site when I checked quickly a couple of weeks ago. I haven't tried using one since the platform update a while back, they did not work then and they mentioned it was related to the update. I may try one just to see what is up this week. I know there was an issue with how it needed to be entered for it to work though, something to do with Canadian trading regs.
Jeff.
(This is an update from April 2009, VTSOs are not available for TSX and Venture Candian exchanges, this has nothing to do with Questrade as VTSO and regular stop loss orders work fine in the Amercan exchanges. I was advised earlier that the problem had to do with some technical difficulties with the operating platform.)
I think I referenced that a little while ago. I either chalked it up to a change in the VTSO function of perhaps just an influx of new traders. If anyone ends up here on a search for answers regarding VTSO or any Questrade issue I don't mind trying to answer any questions. You can to send an email or add a comment, I'll respond. I have tried almost everything that can be done with regular stock trading, and a few things that they didn't like too.
I didn't notice any changes to the VTSO use on their site when I checked quickly a couple of weeks ago. I haven't tried using one since the platform update a while back, they did not work then and they mentioned it was related to the update. I may try one just to see what is up this week. I know there was an issue with how it needed to be entered for it to work though, something to do with Canadian trading regs.
Jeff.
November, still an active lull
October blahs in trading have continued into November and as the month closes out I regret not making the time to do a bit of trading.
Without getting into it too deep, as I already have mentioned this a few times, my fake trading is as accurate as if I had actually made the trade with cash so my results are indicative of real returns had the only difference been that I had pushed the buy/sell button. Extensive testing has proven this to me over months of trials and pennies per trade might be the real difference based on some timing issues.
Having said that I would be sitting with a 5.5% portfolio gain for just the month of November. Seeing how the markets are behaving now, that is better than almost any plan could produce in a longer time period. The best part is, that is only for the two days that I would have traded, seven trades in all. I consider 4 days per week possible. My goal has been set at 4% per week or 1% per day. Given the volatility of the market I could conceivably make a decent living from trading and base it on a $5K startup capital and still be building the portfolio to allow for future retirement or major savings. All this using more conservative numbers than I have been able to produce so far...but that would be far too stressful.
Enough of the big fish stories and rehashing numbers.
I plan on getting back in to the DTing next month. I should have some fresh stories and perhaps some observations given real trading in this current market.
Jeff.
Without getting into it too deep, as I already have mentioned this a few times, my fake trading is as accurate as if I had actually made the trade with cash so my results are indicative of real returns had the only difference been that I had pushed the buy/sell button. Extensive testing has proven this to me over months of trials and pennies per trade might be the real difference based on some timing issues.
Having said that I would be sitting with a 5.5% portfolio gain for just the month of November. Seeing how the markets are behaving now, that is better than almost any plan could produce in a longer time period. The best part is, that is only for the two days that I would have traded, seven trades in all. I consider 4 days per week possible. My goal has been set at 4% per week or 1% per day. Given the volatility of the market I could conceivably make a decent living from trading and base it on a $5K startup capital and still be building the portfolio to allow for future retirement or major savings. All this using more conservative numbers than I have been able to produce so far...but that would be far too stressful.
Enough of the big fish stories and rehashing numbers.
I plan on getting back in to the DTing next month. I should have some fresh stories and perhaps some observations given real trading in this current market.
Jeff.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
October a bust...not really for me.
Well,
This last month just did not work out for me. Conference, busy business schedule, platform issues and technology problems kept me away from almost all trading activity since my last posting. I think that I may have traded two or three days, a bust over all as that does not produce any measureable results....although I did have 58 trades I cannot really recall what transpired. I obviously didn't make or lose much or I am sure that I would have remembered, terrible but I am not going to even look at my spreadsheet now, looking forward only.
So, I know I said that October was going to ne THE month to really get this going...I guess I was wrong, although it was, I couldn't take advantage of any of it. So, I am aiming foor some activity in November, if life and factors don't get in the way again. My technology issues may still exist so I will have to work around them and that may be problematic.
Interesting note about the blog. I am getting a lot of hits on searches about Questrade and VTSO...so I assume there is something going on with this. Perhaps VTSO is not working yet. I know they shut down that option a while ago when they converted to a newer version of QTP and QTE, (the trading platforms). I would have assumed that they had straightened that issue out by now, perhaps not. I have stopped using them anyway as they tend to get me kicked out of trades too soon. Better to set manual stops and progress them as you see fit. VTSO was an interesting experiment for me but proved that it did not work as well as I anticipated it might to allow worry free longer term trading. With the current volatility it is a good thing to not be working if that is the case, chances of getting stopped for some serious losses are quite high, even with regular stops. In daytrading there really is not much place for VTSO's anyway. Long afternoon unmanned runs would be nice but not really the ideal. I have seen a few days where I might have done that as a test.
So. Given that the market has changed so much since my last forays this should be an interesting time to restart my DTing plan. The price of AEM the last time I checked was down well under $50 as the price of gold is depressed now also. Everything is down but I do expect gold to be amoungst the first commodities, and gold related stocks to be amoungst the first stocks, to rebound following this severe correction. I know that a lot of people expected gold to keep increasing as people rushed to it as a hedge against the financial crisis, and they should have been correct, I even expected it but wold not put long term money on it...I didn't trust it anymore than anything else at the time. Goes to show that nothing is a sure thing.
I also think that there are quite a few investors out there wishing right now that they had set stop prices to exit at some respectable point. I know my plan would have had me out had I been playing long term stuff. Better to have to pay some taxes on profits than to get to claim losses should you bail at this time. Having said that I also think that some of this, financial aside, is exasperated by some of the automatic selling.
I notice that online brokers are claiming 80+ % increases in new client signups. I think that a lot of novice investors are getting ready to try to take advantage of low prices...I hope they are quite prepared to lose every cent and then some to the pros who are plying these waters. Price volatility works in their favour as they can knock out stops and control the price enough to play the greed and fear of the average trader. I have seen days in AEM that have shown 5 times the average daily price swing...that is $10 over a normal $2 daily swing. Nice if you are right, but I watched some of these unfold and they were not as predictable as some may have expected. Even so I would loved to have been there with some cash to try my hand at it. With a consistant plan there was a ton of dough to be made.
To those buy and holders all I can say is "RIDE 'EM COWBOY....YEEEEHAAAAAAWWWW!"
Jeff.
This last month just did not work out for me. Conference, busy business schedule, platform issues and technology problems kept me away from almost all trading activity since my last posting. I think that I may have traded two or three days, a bust over all as that does not produce any measureable results....although I did have 58 trades I cannot really recall what transpired. I obviously didn't make or lose much or I am sure that I would have remembered, terrible but I am not going to even look at my spreadsheet now, looking forward only.
So, I know I said that October was going to ne THE month to really get this going...I guess I was wrong, although it was, I couldn't take advantage of any of it. So, I am aiming foor some activity in November, if life and factors don't get in the way again. My technology issues may still exist so I will have to work around them and that may be problematic.
Interesting note about the blog. I am getting a lot of hits on searches about Questrade and VTSO...so I assume there is something going on with this. Perhaps VTSO is not working yet. I know they shut down that option a while ago when they converted to a newer version of QTP and QTE, (the trading platforms). I would have assumed that they had straightened that issue out by now, perhaps not. I have stopped using them anyway as they tend to get me kicked out of trades too soon. Better to set manual stops and progress them as you see fit. VTSO was an interesting experiment for me but proved that it did not work as well as I anticipated it might to allow worry free longer term trading. With the current volatility it is a good thing to not be working if that is the case, chances of getting stopped for some serious losses are quite high, even with regular stops. In daytrading there really is not much place for VTSO's anyway. Long afternoon unmanned runs would be nice but not really the ideal. I have seen a few days where I might have done that as a test.
So. Given that the market has changed so much since my last forays this should be an interesting time to restart my DTing plan. The price of AEM the last time I checked was down well under $50 as the price of gold is depressed now also. Everything is down but I do expect gold to be amoungst the first commodities, and gold related stocks to be amoungst the first stocks, to rebound following this severe correction. I know that a lot of people expected gold to keep increasing as people rushed to it as a hedge against the financial crisis, and they should have been correct, I even expected it but wold not put long term money on it...I didn't trust it anymore than anything else at the time. Goes to show that nothing is a sure thing.
I also think that there are quite a few investors out there wishing right now that they had set stop prices to exit at some respectable point. I know my plan would have had me out had I been playing long term stuff. Better to have to pay some taxes on profits than to get to claim losses should you bail at this time. Having said that I also think that some of this, financial aside, is exasperated by some of the automatic selling.
I notice that online brokers are claiming 80+ % increases in new client signups. I think that a lot of novice investors are getting ready to try to take advantage of low prices...I hope they are quite prepared to lose every cent and then some to the pros who are plying these waters. Price volatility works in their favour as they can knock out stops and control the price enough to play the greed and fear of the average trader. I have seen days in AEM that have shown 5 times the average daily price swing...that is $10 over a normal $2 daily swing. Nice if you are right, but I watched some of these unfold and they were not as predictable as some may have expected. Even so I would loved to have been there with some cash to try my hand at it. With a consistant plan there was a ton of dough to be made.
To those buy and holders all I can say is "RIDE 'EM COWBOY....YEEEEHAAAAAAWWWW!"
Jeff.
Friday, October 3, 2008
September conclusions
I Stopped all trading activity on September 18th due to business and a holiday. Poor time to stop given the volatility in the markets currently, priorities are priorities.
I combined my fake and real trading results to give a better overview of the possibilities for the last month only. So some days were real and some days were fake. I have validated my fake trading methods to ensure that they would be reasonably accurate by applying the same entry exit pricing as I would normally get for a market order entry. I feel pretty confident that the results are indicative of what I might expect to see under similaar conditions.
So, over 11 trading days I saw a 1.66% daily average return on portfolio.
That is an 18.23% return overall.
Even the fake trades count the commissions so the numbers are net and beat my monthly target by 2.23% while only trading 11 of 16 days (1% per day, 4 days per week, 4 weeks per month)
I ran some checks on Wednesday and Thursday this week and I could have conservatively seen a 16.5% increase for those two days. Another month's worth and change.
I could get used to those kinds of returns, but I still only expect a real 1% return per day to keep me grounded in reality.
So my conclusions have me ahead of my goals. I will start back up with no fake trading next week and plan on sticking with 100 share trades for a bit.
I was lucky enough that the price of AEM is, or was yesterday, down around $50. It was starting to get pricey enough for me to change my position size to smaller to stay in the game with that stock. I will not change stocks mid stream right now as I would have to get familiar with a whole new one...not my idea of a good time in a volatile period of uncertainty as this.
So. October is the true trial by fire as I stick with my plan.
I ran the projections on my spreadsheets and they look really promising. I will get into that another day.
JD.
I combined my fake and real trading results to give a better overview of the possibilities for the last month only. So some days were real and some days were fake. I have validated my fake trading methods to ensure that they would be reasonably accurate by applying the same entry exit pricing as I would normally get for a market order entry. I feel pretty confident that the results are indicative of what I might expect to see under similaar conditions.
So, over 11 trading days I saw a 1.66% daily average return on portfolio.
That is an 18.23% return overall.
Even the fake trades count the commissions so the numbers are net and beat my monthly target by 2.23% while only trading 11 of 16 days (1% per day, 4 days per week, 4 weeks per month)
I ran some checks on Wednesday and Thursday this week and I could have conservatively seen a 16.5% increase for those two days. Another month's worth and change.
I could get used to those kinds of returns, but I still only expect a real 1% return per day to keep me grounded in reality.
So my conclusions have me ahead of my goals. I will start back up with no fake trading next week and plan on sticking with 100 share trades for a bit.
I was lucky enough that the price of AEM is, or was yesterday, down around $50. It was starting to get pricey enough for me to change my position size to smaller to stay in the game with that stock. I will not change stocks mid stream right now as I would have to get familiar with a whole new one...not my idea of a good time in a volatile period of uncertainty as this.
So. October is the true trial by fire as I stick with my plan.
I ran the projections on my spreadsheets and they look really promising. I will get into that another day.
JD.
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