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Tuesday, December 2, 2008

December trading begins, days one and two.

I got back in yesterday but I seemed to have lost a little of my edge.

I still have Agnico Eagle Mines as my target stock, AEM.TO with trade sizes of 100 shares.

I popped two decent biggish losses in the mix, only biggish (over $20) because I let them go too long, both would have been small profits if I had exited when I said I was going to. The rest were small losses. (-4.74%) for the day, nice. This was more a "jump back in and see what happens day". I didn't anticipate gains.

Today I faired better. One trade, +1.39%. I caught a small 72 cent slider for 52 of the cents. I just watched and called this like I would have in the past... For the record this would have me stop for the day as it is already 0.39% over my daily goal...unless I saw a nice setup taking place...today looks like a wallowing day though. Had I been on the ball yesterday I should have been able to do better as the price slid pretty well. All in the fun though.

This leads to a rule review.

Daily losses should be cut closer AND next day trading must not be performed to try to recoupe a previous loss...it MUST stand alone as a daily goal otherwise emotion gets in the way...I would have placed additional trades this morning and I can almost guarantee that they would have been losers on some level due to the wallowing. This rule needs to be used even for individual trades.

I learned that one on my high volume testing day a while ago...12-16 trades with about a $400 loss for the day, one trade fed the next which fed the next and only a very few were well placed and gained, and even those were just luck.

I updated my spreadsheet today while waiting for the next trade setup, which is not materializing at all, to calculate my returns based on my actual account balance running as I enter the trade data. This gives me a more accurate picture rather than just going from a preset balance all the time. It makes the gains look better but makes the losses look worse...all in all it is real and adds a certain amount of compounding if I always meet my goal based on the current balance... Headgame with the numbers at this point though.

An interesting observation about setting the return percentages off of the running balance. This will serve to move me into higher volume trading gradually and automaticcally. As the balance grows the trading either has to be more profitable per trade (which is not really the goal) or just more trades per day, then on to larger sized trades as time progresses. I consider it a built in training tool, kind of like increasing the weights at the gym. The other factor is that this can serve to attenuate the trading frequency and curb any chance of overtrading...which is what leads to losses often. Headgames, if I follow this to the "T" then my results will determine how my trading practices develop.

I did massage my combined (real and fake) sheet to match as well. I pop the odd faker in the mix as I see a speculative move setup and call it but don't quite have the balls, or un-interrupted time, to actually place the trade...or perhaps I hesitated that moment before the change starts. I changed it to allow fake trades on the same days as real trades. This gives me a real performance, pure fake performance and combined performance numbers. If the fakers outstrip the real then I should pay more attention to my gut calls.

Followup to the trading, about 10:45 the wallowing came to an end and I was not really there to trade the first slide right off of the pivot point for the day... $41.20 was my target entry with the PP of $41.24...not that they always work out that close but it did today, I had that price in my order box often. Generally the price remained bracketed between yesterday's low and today's early morning high. I usually try to pick some points that look like they may be significant from the previous day price, usually the close or high/low prices in addition to the pivot points, just gives me some targets and references. They don't always work out to be resistance or support but can very often prove so.

That's about all for today. Just a little rambling.

Jeff

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