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Monday, November 9, 2009

Stats and tomorrow's trades

I found a moment to update my stats. Seeing as I realized a few losses I wanted to get things up to date. While I still have a few languishing trades I still feel pretty upbeat about the whole exercise. I am getting good feedback from the service I am using as they are analyzing their approach and modifying the trades accordingly. Right now they are taking a slower approach to putting on new trades and taking small profits while there is strong moves to take advantage off., which is good as I was running out of money to keep up with them even though I was using minimum sizing rules. I now have some free capital to use as trades become available.

Should the market turn down again I am curious to see how they approach the trades. I suspect that another form of short option combinations may be used in which I will once again have to decide which trades to take in order to only go long.

With today's large gain in the S&P I have a hard time envisioning a sharp downturn in the immediate future. I might suspect that a sideways move may be more likely, perhaps meet the most recent high and use that along with the recent low as a trading range for a few weeks. That would suite me fine as it would put the Optioneer trading in very good position to make solid low risk trades.

Speaking of Optioneer. I had decided on a target entry point of 1.9 points or higher (at $250 per point that is $397 after commissions). I have placed trades for that target and higher and have come away empty handed. the shortest trade term is about 30 days and we are at 38 for the current offerings and the targets just went lower due to today's surge. I am hoping to see a more moderate gain tomorrow in order to drive the target for Wednesday a little higher. I can tweak it up by 0.15 by adjusting my trade entries (increasing the call spread of the strangle by 5 points) but that is about it.

So, basically I am in a holding pattern for a while. Ideally this would be a prime time for me to get back to work on "Plan-M" but I have a busy week planned at my real work. Perhaps next week.

Jeff.

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