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Friday, April 3, 2009

Friday, to trade or not to trade?

OK. I set my original goal for trading 4 days per week for 40 weeks. That leaves 12 weeks of 4 day trading weeks as "holidays" or just non-trading days...Also the typical 4 day week leaves Fridays or perhaps one day per week that doesn't look like a good day for me. I like the Friday idea.

Having said that, I really have not traded seriously yet this year and I have used up 12 weeks, or so, so far.

In my playing around I determined not everyone can do this and, while it is easy, getting to the easy part does not come quick. I fall back to the 97% of people who attempt to trade fail. I have probably mentioned that number before. I think that applies to the vast majority of people who try anything that requires some level of commitment... the definition of failure in trading is just more black and white as you are either profitable or not. Then of course there is the in between where people may make out OK and give it up, I expect that counts as failure in the sense that they did not continue to the pursuit.

Today I had a moment when I considered just stopping trading altogether... NAW! While I do enjoy it the only real frustration occurs due to other attention getting issues that keep me from placing the trades as I see them set up. Today was a prime example of that yet again.

It went like this:

Pre market stuff:

Activity of the European market (FTSE) (neutral)
Current trading price of gold (Down)
NYSE cumulative TICK (75 range high and low = neutral)
Global Gold Index (Neutral but looking like a bit of a pre-market uptrend)
Crude Oil (Downtrending a bit)

Plan A) Global Gold index, trade HGU for long and HGD for short moves
Wait for the SMA squeeze for entry
Monthly pivot point target for a downmove = $320
Monthly 1/2 R1 point for an upmove = $342
Expect a ranging day perhaps.

Trade setups and notes...(none taken due to the afore mentioned attention getting issues)

No squeeze as the price dropped cleanly, one quick rally below yesterday's close...
0934h HGD $7.05 as TTGD made a new low...4 minutes into trading.
0947h HGU $12.80 as TTGD bounces off of the monthly PP target...counter trend but solid
0952h Exit HGD at $7.20 after the clean bounce.
0958h Exit HGU at $12.90 30sma tested, pullback, rally, failed to make a new high, exit
1016h HGD at $7.37 as TTGD dropped past the monthly PP target
1017h Exit at $7.32, stop set too tight for this entry and entry too high...wait for test this late
1045h HGD at $7.34 during consolidation, shallow, approaching 30sma...tight stop
Three exits planned here, all using stops.
1109h Exit using 5 cent incremental stops at $7.50
1138h Exit using the 30 SMA at $7.58
1142h Exit using the 50 SMA at $7.57

I am done for the day I expect so the trade tally is as follows:
HGD = 22 cps (Extra 7 or 8 cps using the SMA exits)
HGU = 10 cps

I can calculate this using commissions and position sizing but the point is to be consistently gaining, the rest will look after itself.

BTW, I did manage to squeeze one real trade in, any guesses as to which one it was?

Jeff.

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