S&P TSX Capped Energy Index, playing with charts

I didn't do any trading or even tracking of this today but while I was doing some other work I thought that I would see what a chart from Esignal would look like here.

So this is the S&P TSX Capped Energy Index for today with a little trailer from yesterday.

All of the lines are automatically plotted for daily and monthly pivot points, open, high, low and close from yesterday as well as a 120 period linear regression with 1 standard deviation brackets. The down side for blogging is the lack of flexibility for notations. I think with my fairly minimal trading over the course of the day now that should not be a big deal, I can just plot numbers on the chart and reference them below.

Even though I did not trade this let's take a look at the setup and possibilities.

Based on the gap down at the open I might consider a gap fade to the pivot point but there was no clear bottom to the start so I would not have actually traded it until the 30 and 50 were both crossed... even then the 200 is pretty close so I would have skipped it in favour of waiting for the 200 test.

1000h gives the first test, (anything within 50 cents is a test to me), 10 minutes later is the failed rally, in at the pivot point short. The stops may have been tricky on this but with the slow price action down I would use a combination of the 50sma and rally peaks so the peak after 1100h would be my new stop...deciding to stick to that until it is tested again of following the 50 would be tough at the time...I like to think that I would hold out as I am in the money already and wait for the next peak.

I checked the HED (Energy bear fund) and I would have held through those peaks as the sma's are lower and I do acknowledge them in the fund now, not just the index ones.

The second test gets me in at $11.73ish, the next peak does not break the 50 sma in HED and is over the 200sma as well, the third set of peaks breaks the 50 but the 200 is so close that I would be using it primarily. I would have remained in until about 1415h using stops on the HED chart but I would have bailed when the 30 and 50 went horizontal on the index chart regardless...puts me out at about $12.13. So about 40 cents, not bad.

I do like checking other charts to see if my PP200 holds, so far it does so I could be tracking a few indices with their related ETFs at the start to see who is setting up at any given time...but I would need proper stop loss orders to do this without undo complication.

I think that I may be forced into the US markets soon. We'll see where that leads me another time.

Jeff.