The day in TICK

Here is the trading day today, as mentioned, all fake traded, most live.

The first chart is the TICK chart that I use for trade entry. This is a larger window of the next chart as this shows a little more detail. The first two arrows are the first two trades of the morning, both in SDS to play the SPX short side.

Green lines represent the trade duration and stop times.
Moving averages are 15, 30, 45, 60 SMA.
Dotted black lines are 390 period moving averages of the high and low of the TICK extremes.

It is worth noting that the first trade could have happened in the minute prior to the arrow or in the following 2 or three minutes and the trade would still have been a decent trade...even a little later than that would have worked out, seeing as the second trade was 9 minutes later and only necessary due to a possible tight stop. In reality I am not certain that I would have kept the stop so wide though... I expect, being so early in the trading day that I would have been up another ten cents on the stop which would still have gotten me out in the same minute.

Here is the day in TICK, up to the second last trade:

This is SSO and the trades made using the TICK entry.

Following is the SDS chart for the trades as well.

It is worth noting that I tried a chart entry early in the day and compared it to a TICK triggered entry. I entered SDS for a 15 cent loss and two minutes later, waiting for the TICK to set up, I entered SSO for a 30 cent gain. I have more faith in the TICK method for these ranging sort of days. We'll see how this whole idea works out in the wash.

I notice only now the pattern of the trade entries. Seeing as the range was set in just over the first hour the day can hardly be called a trending day but the pattern of generally higher lows after 1100h are similar to an uptrend. All of the entries in SSO (long SPX) are at the bottoms during the uptrend pattern. All of the trades in SDS (Short SPX) are somewhat later than the bottom during that same period. This leads me to check out the TICK chart closer for clues as to why...I suspect that an established uptrend has the MAs in synch whereas the counter trend takes longer for the MAs to indicate an entry against the grain...similar to a standard price chart.

Total gain for the thirteen trades was $1.78 per share of SDS and $0.64 per share of SSO.

Assume 100 share trades and deducting commissions that rings in at $112...USD so add about 20% for my currency...but that is all moot as I did not actually trade these trades with my currency.

The point is that, using the TICK entry setup I did not have a losing trade but every single trade at least broke even even after commissions. Checking over my stats from my short trial period leaves me with a 21:4 win/loss ratio. My worst day was 5 out of 9 trades loosing and still showing a net profit for the day.

Time to start the real trials to see if I can get anywhere close to those kind of win/loss numbers.

Jeff.