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Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Getting out early.

I did get out earlier on trades that felt like they were turning today. I use indicators like a related index (not delayed), volume, T&S, market depth but mainly the price movement.

Without getting technical, once the price "slowed down", and even slightly before, I could "feel" the strength of the move fading by what my indicators were doing. I am good at calling the exits based on this, I still need to work on my entries a bit though. I need to employ this exit method to "feel" the entries, which I tried a bit today. It got me my fourth trade in the money as I entered at the top of the first large downmove (minute chart). It felt like it was ready to head down and that is the first move that I typically miss.

A side note about getting out early. Two of my trades I could have held through for some more gains and one I could have held through a paper loss for gains as well, one was about 30cents more...the other I cannot recall. In either case I would have given up a profitable position for a possibly more profitable position...the problem with "possibly" is that I would have to rely on probability. I would rather take what I know and what I expect and if the price follows what I might expect then I will hold it. I don't give my expectations much leeway. The trouble is that as soon as the price is let go past the mental stop there are no rules governing when to get out...in cases where this may be a possibility I will place a warning stop and a bail stop. Once I hit the warning I watch the indicators very closely... specifically the T&S and depth...this tells me whether holding past my warning may be a good idea or not. For example lots of supply on a short at my warning stop is worth holding unless the asks stack up then get demolished and the price fails to go lower...I don't wait for my bail price then as it is likely to jump past it anyway with thin depth behind the inside asks, get out while they are still selling at my price.

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