January 6th trading plan, PP200

Yesterday's plan was to use the new idea of the Pivot Points as entry and exit and the 200sma as a genreal bias indicator...although I could not trade for the whole day it turned out that most of the good moves were in the monring anyway and I was done by 1030h.

So here are the charts for the trades of the day, Suncor with two trades.



Buy $28.60 Sell $29.40 Gain 1 dollar ps Return 3.5%
Buy $29.63 Sell $29.60 Gain (-3) cents ps Return (-0.01)%

$0.97 gain per share or 3.3% overall return on trades

First is a bounce off of the R1 for a early entry. I may have considered selling as the price hovered just below R2 but these were live trades, not historical speculation and I decided to hold it through and was rewarded by another 25 cent move. The second trade was placed as the price bounced off of R2 but was exited at 100oh due to weakness in the overall market as seen by the decline in price on the following Capped Energy index.

This index chart gives me my signals for trade exits and worked well yesterday. I will be following this index even more closely now as the last two trades of the day were on HED, the Energy bear ETF, chart follows:



Buy $14.31 Sell $14.64 Gain 33 cents ps Return 2.3%
Buy $14.65 Sell $14.85 Gain 20 cents ps Return 1.4%

$0.53 gain per share or 3.7% overall return on trades

The strong inverse correlation between the Capped energy and the HED ETF make for a nice combination as the index tends to lead the ETF by enough time to make the trades and enough time to place a good exit. The only factor is that the quotes tend to move ahead of the actual price more so than a regular stock, partly due to the low volume and difference method used for valuation. This one could be a decent vehicle to perform some true scalping...but I don't know how the low volume would affect such a strategy.

The Energy index dropped through R1 nicely, and would have been a great short sell trade on SU if I could short. Instead I look at the HED and see the corresponding gain in price. Using the PP200 plan I would not enter until R1 was broken on the way down which equates to S1 broken on the way up on HED for about about a 20 cent gain (conservative). Enter at 1055h exit at 1110h as the index stalls but the ETF doesn't drop off as quick.

Realistically I would have placed a more aggressive position trade at 1050h and exited at the same point for a gain of 38 cents. Both of these are just "could haves" though so I don;t count them as anything but a bit of chartwork.

Jeff.