The price opened low, headed up and crossed the 200sma far earlier than I expected. This led me to wonder what was up as the price jiggled along this line for a while. I did place a trade expecting a move up but once I saw it not materialize I jumped out just moments before the price plummeted $4 in a few minutes. Had I not been long I would have gone short as soon as the price crossed and tested the 200. Sometimes it is hard to be nimble enough to reverse a trade as quick as these materialize. In hindsight I should have bailed earlier as I did hold the trade too long...although I also should have noted a resistance level in AEM that matched up with the peak in GD after my trade...I could have had a small profit and been ready for the reversal.
The rest of the day was a wash as I decided to play with my Forex trial account for a bit instead of trading.
Today, I checked the price of gold before the market open and saw that it looked like it was heading for 4 digit territory. I really did not think it would even touch the $1000 threshold today let alone cross it for a little while. That fact does not change the action expected for today's price in the Global Gold index. A drop off the start to bump the 200 then a return to the day open...the rest was unknown.
So there were 14 trades, marked by the red arrows, that I could have taken, not all great trades but no real losers in the mix. The first circled one was the one that I considered even though it was outside of my boundary, I figured it should be a good high entry as the price dropped off. I won't bother with any of the excuses for why I did not place any of these trades as I saw them set up. While the excuses are all good, they are still excuses. This is something I anticipate correcting for next week.
Trades 2 through 8 are textbook pivot point entries, although #6 was not technically a retest it might have been expected and traded. 5, 7, 8 and 9 are strong PP200 as they meet both trade criteria, testing a pivot point, the primary no less, and the 200 sma at the same time. The last one before 1130h was the kicker and in order to be sure to be in that large move all of the other trades would have to have been made as this move was not guaranteed, it could have happened in either direction at any one of those times earlier...odds favoured a move up though.
The last two were again PP200 trades... the last move on my chart is most of what was left as the price is now hovering around $339. That second last trade was not so great and the less probably one, but I never know for sure...all I could hope is that I realized it was not and got out soon enough to reverse the trade. It looked like a clean retest two minutes after the drop so I would be free an clear for it.
For my own personal gratification of knowing what I might have been able to pull off here I roughly figured the entry and exit trades.
Rise in Global Gold = buying HGU (Bull fund), drop in Global Gold = buying HGD (Bear Fund)
10 trades, I dropped two redundant ones...would have just still been in the previous one and two of the ones off the start that I would not have taken...these just cut the profit by a little bit anyway.
All up was $533 net tax free. So I apply my 30% fudge against me to bring it to $373.
Dropping my two top trades and applying my 30% fudge I still see $159. Still well above my daily goal right now.
All in all I am more than satisfied with the prospect of trading this particular plan and looking forward to the profits to come.
For anyone following along I expect to not be blogging this weekend at all. Other stuff on the go.
Jeff.
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