Turns out it is mainly the environment as I placed 12 round trip trades and had fun doing it. No qualms about getting into trades. So the whole basis for my not getting trades in is still the interruptions of the regular day.
Here is the chart for The Global Gold index and my notations for my trades.
Green boxes are the time and price changes that I was long in HGU (Bull follows the index)
Red boxes are the time and price changes that I was long in HGD (Bear inverse of the index)
Red arrows are my losers, they are pretty tight so no separate boxes
Horizontal lines are the various pivot points, blue primary and green support.
I followed my rules, for the most part, and entered as the price passed and/or tested the appropriate points.
The first trade I jumped out of too soon, I just didn't feel like starting the day with a loss, so I had a breakeven...in hindsight that was a mistake. Even the second trade I bailed on early. Trade three I got out at the appropriate time but the price did not pullback close enough for me to consider another trade. I am using 50 cents or closer on the Global Gold as a margin for entry. Number 4 passed the 1/2 S1 point cleanly so I jumped in to catch that small gain. I was aiming for a move past the 200sma and hopefully a larger move than I got, but I exited at the peak.
The next two trades were washes as the price was squeezed between the rising 50sma and the dropping 200 sma with the 1/2 S1 bisecting the move...the breakout would be a toss up so I tried applying my entry rules firmly here using the 1/2 S1 as the trigger then using the 200 as a trigger prematurely. I will be watching the price relative to the 50 closer now as I see that it has some affect as resistance and support when conjoined with the other points.
The trade just before noon was a classic 200sma entry. I bailed a little prematurely on this one as well but the activity softened too much for me to feel real comfortable staying in. The next entry was banking on a drop in price and there was a brief rally that went high enough to shake me out only to get back in for the same trade, even though for a slightly better price I should have had more confidence in this one as at this point in the day gold was brushing the $1000 mark and I do not believe it is ready to jump past that point just yet. The 1300h and 1400h trades were more typical of what I might expect normally as I used the primary pivot point and the 200sma to play the price drop with HGD. I anticipated most everything to be downhill from here but did not have as much trust in my call as I should have.
The last two trades just whipsawed me out as I played the 1/2 S1 line crossing for momentum. The wost thing was that the last trade was right, I just didn't hold it long enough to see the drop. There were no more trade setups beyond that, other than the last drop off which was a nice technical setup but I decided to stick to my plan.
Overall I am down by some of my commissions as I choked on all of the larger upward moves.
Lessons learned.
1) have a bit more faith in the trade plan, it does work.
2) pay closer attention to the squeezes, 200/50 sma with support and resistances
3) the fast moves past the lines can be captured, as I did, without relying on the pullback or rally to test the support or resistance. In all of my back testing I would not count a fast single bar move past a line without a test. I will still not count them for back testing to fudge against me.
Jeff.
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