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Monday, December 7, 2009

Current position review...Oh My!

I decided to check all of my current option positions against the BPI for the sectors that they are in and was a little surprised at what I found. Keep in mind that all of these are recommendations by an option advisory service. While some of their recs were quite profitable, and I am still up in realized gains, I would not have chosen the trades myself... they base them on information that I do not have access to. That in and of itself may be a good reason NOT to use a service, not double checking anything.

These are listed in descending order of S&P 500 sector BPI.

Positions - Sector - BPI
12 - Information Technology - 84.21%
1 - Healthcare - 80.77%
3 - Consumer Discretionary - 73.08%
2 - Utilities - 71.43%
1 - Telecommunications Services - 66.67%
2 - Financials - 63.29%

I am a little more than top heavy in one sector and it is the sector that has the most companies in a bull trend according to P&F signals... 84.21%. Considering that this is 14.21% higher than the 70% trigger I would use this does not necessarily bode well for those many positions. There obviously is not a market sector slant to the picks.

Of all optionable stocks the BPI is 66.54% and on it's way down from an 82.08% high in late September. If it had been used as an index trigger, November 2nd the BPI dropped below 70% triggering a bear trade.

Info Tech hit a high BPI of 97.31% on October 21st and crossed down on November 4th, bear trade signal again and I am loaded up with Info Tech.

I knew that there was merit in using Bullish Percent Index charts but at the time I don't think that I was really ready for the application. I did keep all the charts in my stockcharts.com account but I did not refer to them often. Like anything else, just another tool in the trading toolbox.

Having said all that I will not second guess my current trades, comparing one strategy against another using the wrong tools can be problematic.

Jeff.

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