Save my work next time and the current trade analysis.

AAARRGH!

I was plotting a SPY chart with all of the trades based on my spreadsheet calculations. I was finished and I didn't save it before changing the chart style...I forgot that the chart style will over write plottings. So I lost the last half or better. What a pain.

Anyway, the whole exercise was aimed at getting familiar with the movement of the linear regression channels, the spacing for spread trade setting and to see how well my spreadsheet calculations worked toward being able to take advantage of bear call spreads in an uptrend...against the trend. I placed put spreads in as well.

All trades were deemed placed on the first trading day of the month for that month's expiry, one for the 3rd Friday and one for the EOM. All trades were profitable but, due to the difficulty in obtaining decent data for options history I Just went with the fact that all trades expired leaving me with all of what ever profits the spread may have been setup for.

So, rather than trying to duplicate the chart I'll post a chart showing the dual linear regressions instead.

Then I used today's data for a current trade based on a similar setup. The yield was only 5% using a $3 spread and staying far enough away from the price to be as risk free as the rest of the trades. The return per day was $3.25 and the risk was around $1000. A little lower than I thought it might be but with today's market gains the volatility dropped.

Following that I used today's data to determine the trade value for a December 18 expiry and Dec 31 expiry trade placed today.

The bear call spreads came up to $116 and $118 while the bull put spreads are at $108 and $107. The calls are according to the calculations with a 1.5 risk adjustment due to the strong uptrend historically. The puts are rather aggressively placed, I might favour dropping one strike and increasing the spread to raise the absolute return value.

The trade that I did place on Friday is a little low. I added some price forecasting and I expect to need to exit this trade before expiration unless the topping that is started continues and I get a little lucky. I did mention that I thought that trade might be a bit low.

Jeff.