SPY, the Chart, the Trades

Green arrow is the trade date and sold level for my initial bear call spread.
Red is today's bull put spread.

I am feeling somewhat better about the call spread as the index seems to be topping out, the yellow lines are the original linear regression channel (one standard deviation) and the black are the current lines. the top is lowering and the slope is flattening out enough that the new price projection is lower, but still could intersect my initial call spread. I feel pretty good about the put spread though. It is a better trade even though it is worth a little less than the calls.

Looking at the call spread I wonder about where it might have ended up had I been using my current spreadsheet and thinking...$10 equivalent days ($2.40 days per $1200 risk).

It is going to hit $3.95 per day with a 12.58% yield (Return on Risk) so I had far more wiggle room than I thought...I was fixated on a 10% yield at the time...which may just inttroduce more risk that I would like. I may have been able to tighten the spread to $2, raise the short strike by $1 and bump the contracts up to by 2 and created a safer trade for the same risk and met my $2.40 target.

I would love to setup a spreadsheet tool that could import quotes and run these numbers quicker but this at least keeps me focused on one security and therefore focused on the plan.

Comparing the first trade to today's numbers, SPY price is close to teh same level. If I use Jan expiry it is about the same timeline. The relative call quotes are very similar but might result in a slightly higher net credit.

Plugging in the numbers gives me my target by trading at the 117 strike level instead of the 115. So I guess I was a little greedy. I need to always remember that I am aiming for cashflow, not returns.

Jeff.