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Thursday, June 12, 2008

ATD/B - Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc update

Ticker symbol - ATD/B
Company - Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc

Short sold at $14.55 for a possible $3 or so target.
Profit vs risk ratio = 6:1

Today was an interesting day. I was at work doing some computer stuff so I checked on my ATD position...I was also setting a new order but that's another story...ATA, missed my price today on that one.



Important lines:

  • Blue solid, the original trend boundaries
  • Blue dashed possible new trend boundaries
  • Pink dashed, stop settings throughout the morning

Other important points and actions:

  • The price hit a new low in late April of $13.18, this is either just an intratrend low OR a new trend low point
  • The high of $15.95 Early May bounced off the old upper trend line...so I didn't know yet if the trend has changed a bit or not.
  • The minimum target is the potential new lower trend line
  • I lowered my stop to $13.80 last night
  • Once the day started and the price started heading up I lowered the stop to $13.60
  • The price inched higher looking like it is confirming the new lower trendline
  • I moved my stop lower to $13.40...this is a profit protection move as those two stops increased my "locked in " profit by another $0.40 per share.
  • The price maxed at $13.35, close, then ended the day at $12.99.

Three choices for tomorrow.

  1. Leave the stop, maybe the price will go lower and I can move the stop tomorrow night
  2. Lower the stop to maximize gains even more and likely get stopped out.
  3. Set a Virtual Trailing Stop Order (VTSO) and get the best of both worlds.

The VTSO will follow the price down at a certain distance. If the price moves up the stop stays. I tried using these in the past and they don't work very well except at the end of a trade when you know you are near the target.

I am up almost 8% at my stop setting, 10% where the price is so I need to decide if I am satisfied with 8% on this trade or go for a few more points.

I think the price has bottomed and is headed back up. If so, this will set me up for a long trade on Monday or Tuesday...if not I would like to ride the price down...VTSO it is, set at $0.40 above the price.

JD.

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