ATD/B - Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc closed

Ticker symbol - ATD/B
Company - Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc

Short sold at $14.55 for a possible $3 or so total target. Profit vs risk ratio = 6:1

Covered today at $13.40 as the price rose to hit my stop setting. $1.15 profit.

I contemplated moving the stop down as the initial price had started to slowly move up when I checked around 10AM. Obviously I should have but I am satisfied with a 7.2% net return on this trade, not too bad for a little over a week. the newer trend lines have been confirmed.

I had made a small profit on this one on an initial short sell in the middle of May that only returned 1.31%. I missed about 3% in the re-entry of this trade due to the stop settings. I should have been able to stay in and seen a 12.4% return on the trade or $1.90 per share, hindsight. I learned from that one well though as BVF did the exact same thing but I saw it coming and adjusted my stop accordingly so I stayed in that trade through the rally in price.

Total net profit for the stock to date: $124.83 or 2.49% increase in the portfolio overall.

The Next Step:

The Buy In and the Stop:

Note the dashed red Trend Within a Trend (TWT) line right under the sell point arrow circled. that is the new tentative TWT as it touches the low prices for Wed, Thur, and Friday. I might expect it to hit that line again a few times on it's way up so I would want to buy in at about the red arrow price on Monday and leave the stop set below the new TWT line...or even under the blue lower trend boundary line until the new TWT is firmly established.

The price may pullback 1/3 of the jump:

My stops are supposed to work as my re-entry point if they are hit where I expect them to be hit. Today I should have bought the stock as soon as it was covered as the price is climbing nicely. I really don't have the time to always watch for these so I decided to be satisfied with entering the long position on Monday. I fully expect that the price may pullback 1/3 of the jump from today anyway...this kind of a momentum price action quite often does that.

The Targets:

There are three targets on the next trade, $14.40, $14.80 and $15.20, roughly. As the overall trend is still down this next trade is Counter Trend for the Position...the whole premise for CTP. This trade is more risky as it is going against the trend which is why I use the TWT and keep the stop setting following that. It also has a smaller profit target. Assume that I get in at $13.40 I have between $1 and $1.80. Profit vs Risk ratio (P/R) is between 2:1 and 3.6:1 as my loss allowance on this trade will be $0.50. I could use realized gains to make this number look better but that wouldn't give me the correct "feel" for the trade.

The Goal:

The primary goal due to the small target and the trend is to have a position when the price hits...and possibly breaks, the upper trend line(s). If it doesn't I get a target profit. If it does I may be able to ride the new uptrend for higher profits or for a long term holding that I can keep buying into as the price continues to follow the uptrend.

I don't think the price will break the upper trend boundary line. I'm not 100% sure which line will serve as resistance but I am confident that the price will continue down after that point allowing for another target for a short sell trade. Perhaps this will be the start of a very wide triangle consolidation pattern with a trend down between the lower trend line on the chart and the lower of the two upper trend line boundaries.

JD.