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Monday, June 8, 2009

Casino play

I spent some time at a casino on the weekend...too much time actually, but that is a whole other story. My wife kept insisting that I go and play figuring that it was "my thing". I tried the slots, no fun there. I would sooner just play a decent video game that had some user interface other than a play button. So I checked out the card tables, craps, roulette and baccara. Cards were the draw. I played some War (and old high low card game that I used to play as a kid just for fun) and found that the odds were definitely not in my favour...it wouldn't be there if there was a decent chance for a player to win anyway. Even though I zeroed out it was fun and I played for some time in the green.

Someone asked me what I thought a good gambler was, they were joking but I figured a good gambler left with a smile on their face no matter if they won or lost. Of course that implies that they were playing with money that they did not need, just like in trading. In gambling, the game is the fun, winning is a bonus, that is were gambling and trading differ, one of the points anyway.


This gave me pause to reconsider where I am in trading. Am I enjoying the game too much? Should I be leaving it alone? I decided to follow trades today rather than actually placing them, use the quotes for entry prices, move my stops on the charts, watch the patterns and levels and see where I would be on a fake trade basis in real time again. Of course, at this point, I decided to place one real trade in the middle and I picked the wrong one to do that with, small loss, so I stayed out for the rest. That one trade actually didn't really follow my rules that I am using for the faking...go figure. This is a day to review these rules closely and watch the results so I can get them on some sort of written reference card.

What I noticed at the casino was that I played with a similar outlook as I have when I am trading. I am aware of my loss allowance, I know when I am up or down, I have a target that I would take profits off if I were ahead and I will walk away at a certain point.


No, I am not going to try to figure out a method to make money gambling at cards... I may return to play another time but certainly not in the near future.

Meanwhile I am tracking today's activity and moving my chart stops along the way. I am reminded of the number of times I say, "in order to trade someone else's system you have to make every trade and be able to observe their loss allowances", and what not. Today I think of those times and I realize that I need to apply them to my trading system...loosely calling what I am doing a system for now, more just a method. I need to follow it for each and every trade as trying to cherry pick a trade or three does not stack the odds in my favour. I seem to have a knack for picking the wrong ones, or just not actually following my method and entering at the wrong time. I shoot myself in the foot, so to speak.

So, the rest of the week, when I can trade, I will be following what my plan is.

I'll post today's charts later.

Jeff.

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