The market (S&P 500) opens flat, the same open as the close yesterday. To me that means that it will start out without too much movement, at least early on. That has, so far, proven to be the case as it waffles around the 1166 area. Of course I have spreads at 1160 and 1165. I expect to take a loss on the 1160's.
Today is options expiry. Normally I don't take much stock in that but having trades that are very close makes one take notice of what is happening. This is one of the reasons why paper trading is not much use... no money on the line then the line is not observed and the nuances of market movement are not noted for later recall.
Options technically expire today BUT that is not the end of it. The final settlement numbers are tallied at the open on Friday so an overnight move can, and will, affect the size of a loss, in my case, or even whether an option may be exercised due to moving into the money overnight.
Normally I would expect spreads and iron condors to be far enough away at expiry that the final numbers are next to meaningless, seeing that as long as the final levels are inside the range full profits are retained.
In my idealized world I would like to see the market drop away and settle tomorrow a hair under 1160, that would be really nice. Anywhere in the 1160 to 1165 range would be OK. Then the market is free to rally on up. This would keep my spreads in good shape and push all my long positions into the green zone tomorrow and over the weekend. Seeing as I have 21 on the go now and half are options... but all April or June expirys.
I'll update my stats over the weekend. I'll end up with four sets, one each for the Optioneer stuff, daytrading, stock swing trades and the options momentum trades.
Jeff.
Questrade, My direct access discount broker.
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