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Friday, March 19, 2010

Rollin', Rollin', Rollin'...

Today was a better day for the day trading. There were five separate positions open from previous days and one of them was technically two trades. Now I only have two open trades as they did not move to target prices early today, perhaps they will later.

My total gross profit for the day was $1800. Commissions have to come out of that yet.

The quick take on my updated stats puts me at $319 per day and $111 per trade with a $2552 net profit or 25.52% for the last two trading weeks. If I can at least meet that every two weeks my pretax profits are in the $66K range.

Hmmmm... I have been using the day count as days that had trades opened on... but today none were opened and three were closed. While I count the trades back on the day the trade was opened I am going to count all the days as not doing so will skew my results and artificially inflate them. So, instead of 8 trading days in the last two weeks I will count all days, even Friday last that no trading occurred.

Daily average becomes $255 per day at 2.55% per day.

Updating my forecast according to those numbers puts me at the $50,000 mark every 40 weeks or 10 months... one of my original targets too. That is just working with the capital that I have in place right now.

My last post mentioned a daily target of $250, I figured at 1% per day I could achieve that in short order (months) so today's stats already has me beating that goal. $255 per trading day is 2.55% ROI. Doing some forecasting with compounding at 2.55% per day and using only 5 days per week instead of five will beat my $50K in 10 months by a little bit....

Say, by $400,000.

Oh Shit!

I double checked my math, it is correct...so I dropped to 2% per day and I see $135K in the 10 month window. That is a more realistic number...even if the first is possible I wonder if I will keep trading big enough to produce that kind of return.

The worst... or best... part is that this is based off of a $10,000 investment. Now, this is taxable income. The next step, as I mentioned, was to transfer to the TFSA to make it non-taxable.

The other best part is that the goal of the trading room is to see every member making at least $500 per day of trading... so I am low and I know some are already far higher than that due to their using the $25,000 minimum US regulated day trading capital minimum. Basically multiply my results by 2.5 or more and that is where I could be given more cash.

Even though these results are not completely mine to lay claim to it has taken two years to learn enough to know to look in the right places for these kinds of opportunities.

I have yet to close some of the other trade services trades and see some of those profits start streaming in.

Although, my Optioneer account took a large hit today due to the strange market opening activity... much larger than I or my broker or his colleagues anticipated. I suspect that I may have to exercise their performance guarantee after all as I see no way that my account can recoup this loss in the time frame allotted for the guarantee. Today I am considering yanking those funds and using them in my regular accounts. As much as this is a larger than expected hit I still have faith in the methodology of the Optioneer trading scheme, I just need to tweak the way that I am applying it... which means reduced return potential to play it far more conservatively.

We'll see what happens in the coming months.

Jeff.

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