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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

A quick performance check

I've been testing option trading services and their results. While I have not broken them down there is one clear winner so far...mostly due to the volume of trades they recommend. My original intention was to keep any service that paid for it's subscription price in the trial period but I can see that is really going to turn out in favour of only one service as two of the services are providing about one trade a week. I do not intend to continue any that cannot at least look like they may be profitable over the longer term.

So far my overall trade performance based on trades closed since I started tracking the service provided trades looks pretty impressive. There are a few of my trades mixed in here as well...actually four of the total 9 closed are mine and 2 are technically one trade as half of a position was closed and the other half was left to ride for a bit longer...I should have just closed the whole thing at the time...hindsight. The difference was an 85% net return compared to a 63% net return.

9 trades closed
8 winning trades (88.8% win rate)
49.3% average net profit per trade (including the loser)
55.5% average net profit per trade (NOT including the loser)

I expect to have more losers as time progresses. I also expect to be cancelling one service this week as the trial period expires on Saturday and there have only been three trades, one closed for a profit. I need to see more trading volume in order to keep more smaller trades active. Fewer large trades feels like a disaster waiting to happen as a large position goes south and takes capital with it.

I feel that a diversified approach, many small trades, can lose overall but it would take a larger market related move to do it whereas a few stocks could collapse but would only take out the smaller trades based on those stocks. The higher volume plan is in line with the approach of the trading service I am probably going to keep. They have had 16 trades in the same period... three closed for a profit and three did not get filled.

Basically they suit my style of trading.

Jeff.

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